Throughout the course of the Ohio State football season, we like to keep an eye on what the ESPN computers say about the Buckeyes’ chances of winning each of its remaining games. It’s one thing to get a look at what the bleeps and bloops of the computer say before the season begins, and now that we have some game film to look at for all of the opponents, there’s some actual concrete data to go by.
Even more as the weeks pass by.
Ohio State came up just a wee-bit short on when it was last in against Oregon because of a myriad of mistakes and bizarre plays, and was on an off week last Saturday to attempt to find ways to correct what went wrong — especially on defense.
However, most of the Buckeyes’ opponents were still in action and the results are sure to change what the ESPN “supercomputer” says about the chances of OSU winning each of its remaining games so, we’re taking a look once again.
Do the computers still believe the Buckeyes can get past all of the rest of its remaining opponents? What about the trip into Happy Valley to play Penn State? What about upstart Indiana, a Nebraska team that’s up this weekend, and of course — Michigan?
Here’s a look at the updated percentage chances of OSU winning each of its remaining games according to the ESPN ‘matchup predictor‘ after Week 8 of the season.
Saturday, Oct. 26 vs. Nebraska
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability – 96.5% (up from 94.8% last week) All-Time Series – OSU leads 9-1
Projected Running Record: 6-1
The Narrative
Nebraska might have been exposed a bit last weekend against Indiana, but the Cornhuskers will probably be hungry to show that it was a fluke. Likewise, Ohio State wants to get back on the field and show that it can move on from the loss to Oregon. Which team will be more motivated?
Saturday, Nov. 2 at Penn State
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability – 68.5% (down from 70.4% last week) All-Time Series – OSU leads 24-14
Projected Running Record: 7-1
The Narrative
This could be the highest remaining obstacle for Ohio State if it wishes to get to Indianapolis and beyond to the 12-team College Football Playoff. Playing at Penn State is never easy, and this time around the Nittany Lions look to be a pretty complete team. Still, there have been signs of not quite playing up to the talent level in Happy Valley, so we’ll see which team shows up.
Saturday, Nov. 9 vs. Purdue
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability – 99.0% (same as last week) All-Time Series – OSU leads 41-15-2
Projected Running Record: 8-1
The Narrative
You never look past an opponent, but this might be as close as it gets. Purdue is a mess this year and unless there’s an outbreak of the flu or something that goes through the Ohio State locker room, you like the Buckeyes chances to roll the helmets out and win this one. Funnier things have happened, but everyone in the Milky Way Galaxy has to feel good about this one.
Saturday, Nov. 16 at Northwestern
Wrigley Field (Chicago, Illinois)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability – 95.5% (up from 94.8%) All-Time Series – OSU leads 65-14-1
Projected Running Record: 9-1
The Narrative
Make this two weeks in a row that Ohio State should be able to breeze through the game with relative ease. Northwestern has had a hard time scoring this year and that probably won’t get any better, even in an atmosphere that should be pretty cool at Wrigley Field. Get your tickets now.
Saturday, Nov. 23 vs. Indiana
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability – 77.6% (down from 83.4% from last week) All-Time Series – OSU leads 79-12-5
Projected Running Record: 10-1
The Narrative
This is no longer a sneaky game for Ohio State. The Indiana offense has been scoring on everyone and the defense has been more than competitive. Depending on how healthy quarterback Kurtis Rourke is, this cold be a real battle in the ‘Shoe. Seriously, if you’ve been watching college football this year, you understand how dangerous the Hoosiers are.
Saturday, Nov. 30 vs. Michigan
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner – Ohio State Buckeyes Win Probability – 93.8% (up from 92.4% from last week) All-Time Series – OSU trails 51-61-6
Total Projected Regular Season Record: 11-1
The Narrative
Never discount how the underdog in a rivalry can rise up, but you have to feel pretty good about Ohio State laying the wood to Michigan this year. The Wolverines have taken a giant leap backwards after winning the national championship last season and are searching for answers. Might Michigan even miss out on the postseason? It’s surely possible.
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Updated Ohio State football ESPN FPI remaining game-by-game predictions after Week 8
