The Dodgers open the playoffs next week, with the same question hanging over them that haunted them last year, and two years ago, and three years ago. None of those Octobers included a World Series, and this one does not offer much more optimism, because the Dodgers still cannot answer that one question.
Can anyone here pitch six innings?
Orel Hershiser is not walking through that door. In this day and age, complete games are a completely unrealistic expectation.
In October, six innings should be realistic.
The Dodgers have played 15 consecutive postseason games without their starter pitching more than five innings. They have lost their last six postseason games and their last three postseason series.
A Dodgers starter pitching six?
“Sign me up,” manager Dave Roberts said.
“In a vacuum, I think any manager would say, ‘If I could get six from a starter and be in a position to win the game,’ they would bank it. But that’s just not the way the game is played.”
The Dodgers do not need every starter to work six innings, but it is difficult to imagine them winning a postseason series without at least one starter getting that far.
They cannot line up their preferred relievers in their preferred spots if they have to go to the bullpen in the fourth or fifth inning every night. And, if they do, the relievers that need to secure 12 to 18 outs every game can be prone to exhaustion.
Read more: Triple play ends game as flat Dodgers lose to surging Padres
The Dodgers may not win the National League West. The San Diego Padres clinched a wild-card spot Tuesday and closed within two games of the first-place Dodgers with five to play.
With the Dodgers in an actual pennant race for the first time in three years, September tells a story, and for them it is not a pretty one.
The Dodgers’ starters have posted a 6.20 earned-run average this month, the worst in the league. Their relievers have pitched 95 innings this month, the most of any NL bullpen — and five more than their starters.
The depth chart on the Dodgers’ website lists nine starters, five of them injured. Roberts offered an unprompted status report on the four healthy starters. In the order he mentioned them:
Jack Flaherty pitched six innings in his last start. He’s done it in the majority of his starts this season.
“Flaherty has shown that,” Roberts said.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has too, but not since he returned from the injured list this month. In his three starts since then, he has not pitched more than four innings.
“We have to continue to get him built up,” Roberts said.
Rookie Landon Knack pitched four innings Tuesday. He has made 14 starts and pitched six innings twice, so gut feel may be as important as track record.
“You have to read and react,” Roberts said.
Walker Buehler, who supplanted Clayton Kershaw as the Dodgers’ October ace, has made seven starts since returning from the injured list for the second time this season. His ERA this year: 5.63.
“Walker certainly has the pedigree,” Roberts said, “but as far as recency, we haven’t seen it.”
The Dodgers can consider activating Tony Gonsolin for a few innings. They can hope Kershaw can return from the injured list, but they probably would have to win a playoff round before considering him for the following round. They can concoct a brew of openers, bulk relievers and bullpen games.
Read more: Clayton Kershaw not ready to face hitters as chance of postseason return is fading
But none of those options are preferable to a solid starter delivering six innings. The Padres boast five starters who can deliver six innings: Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, Michael King, Joe Musgrove and Martin Perez.
“We do have a deep bullpen,” Padres manager Mike Shildt said, “but it is nice that we have been able to have starters go deep recently and been able, between off days and the depth of our bullpen, to be able to pass the ball around and be effective.
“I’m a big advocate that your best bullpen is a good starting rotation and a good offense. Our rotation has been fantastic, and it’s been really good recently.”
While the Dodgers’ starters rank last in the league in ERA this month, the Padres’ starters rank first, at 2.18. That could mean the Dodgers might have to outslug the Padres to win this series and clinch the NL West at Dodger Stadium — or to beat the Padres in a possible division series battle.
On Tuesday, the Dodgers scored two runs against the Padres.
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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
