Pats-Dolphins preview: Can Drake Maye get help from fellow rookie? originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — The Patriots are fresh off a loss, firmly out of the playoff picture, and about to play in a city that has been a house of horrors for them for years.
And yet, there’s reason to feel good about the direction in which things are going. He wears No. 10.
The question that needs to be answered now, with the games remaining on the Patriots’ schedule, starting Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, is this: By season’s end, will Drake Maye be the lone reason for optimism?
The stats will tell you that, already, Maye is beyond just promising. Per NFL Media, he’s one of three rookie quarterbacks in league history to throw the ball 40 times or more and complete 70 percent of his passes. The other two were Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. And Maye’s already done it twice in six starts.
Per FTN Fantasy, Maye is the most accurate quarterback in football with a 91.9 accuracy rate. According to Fantasy Life, Maye — who is averaging 238 yards passing and 40 yards rushing in five full starts — would, if he can keep it up, join the following quarterbacks to average those numbers in a season: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and Randall Cunningham.
The proof of Maye’s early arrival on the NFL stage goes beyond what he’s done statistically, though. He has opposing coaches singing his praises on a regular basis, a trend which continued this week ahead of his first meeting with the Dolphins.
“The thing you see on tape is he just doesn’t lack confidence,” Miami defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver said. “He trusts his ability. He trusts his arm… This is not me saying he’s Josh Allen, but you’ve kind of got to approach him like Josh Allen a little where you’re trying to funnel him in certain directions and trying to contain his rushing ability as much as you can.”
The issue for the Patriots right now is that the other youngsters drafted to grow and develop with Maye this past spring haven’t yet shown an ability to keep pace with the 22-year-old from North Carolina.
It seems increasingly unlikely that rookie wideouts Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker are about to establish themselves and stake their claim to unquestioned roles in Year 2.
Baker, a fourth-round pick, has struggled to get on the field and was yanked kickoff duties a week ago against the Rams. (It sounds like the Patriots are willing to try him there again soon, however.) Polk, a second-rounder, has 11 catches in 10 games and committed a false-start penalty on a fourth-and-1 would-be trick play against the Rams that head coach Jerod Mayo said he believed was going to lead to a Patriots touchdown.
Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt was asked this week if Polk needs a break, meaning some time away from the field on game day.
“It’s a fine line,” he said. “You want to keep those guys out there to continue their development. Sometimes they need a break, sometimes a game to take a break and kind of reset and get refocused gives those guys a chance. But at this point now, we have to roll. We’re not rookies as much anymore so we expect more out of these guys.”
That could mean one of two things.
Either A) the Patriots are simply imploring their youngest wideouts to step up and show them something as they finish the year and get into a critical team-building period in a few months. Or B) Van Pelt’s “we have to roll” comment means young players could be left behind as the Patriots chase wins that could help them build a culture and help them achieve their goal of being a team no one wants to play by December and January.
🔊 Patriots Talk Podcast: Maximizing Drake Maye means Patriots NEED to use his legs | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
How the Patriots use Polk on Sunday will be telling.
Playing him extensive snaps would be an indication they’re desperate to get him going and to have him eventually solidify himself alongside Maye as a reason for optimism in 2025. That could come at the expense of winning this week, though, given his recent level of production versus that of other options at receiver like Kendrick Bourne, Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas.
Benching Polk won’t mean the team has given up on his ability to eventually help Maye be the best version of himself. But it could make it harder for Polk to establish himself as known commodity and a dependable option next season. He’s done anything but through 11 weeks of the regular season, and time for him to turn around his rookie year is running out.
Here are the matchups that will loom large Sunday in Miami…
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Tua Tagovailoa vs. DeMarcus Covington
The Patriots had a high-leverage (not to mention high-risk) blitz call blow up on them last week, and it’ll be interesting to see if Patriots defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington opts for another aggressive plan when he sees Tua Tagovailoa, who’s second in the NFL in completion percentage and third in rating when seeing five or more rushers.
Tagovailoa is 6-0 in his career against the Patriots, who’ve long been a man-to-man and blitz-heavy team. This season, he’s fifth in completion percentage and sixth in yards per attempt against man coverage.
The Patriots may want to try more zone looks to prevent Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith — the former Patriots tight end is actually second in receiving yardage for Miami — from running wild on Sunday. Tagovailoa is 16th in yards per attempt against zone this year and 22nd in rating.
Matchup that will surprise you
Alex Van Pelt vs. Anthony Weaver
The Patriots have had an effective early-game offense lately. Our Tom E. Curran highlighted this week on the Patriots Talk Podcast that Van Pelt’s opening scripts have yielded successful drives, and the numbers back him up. Since Maye became the starter in Week 6, the Patriots rank 11th in the NFL in EPA per play in the first quarter and ninth in EPA per dropback.
Expect positive returns from Van Pelt’s “first 15” and this offense early then, right? Well, maybe not.
The Dolphins, since Week 6, have been among the NFL’s best first-quarter defenses. Weaver appears to have his team sniffing out early-game tendencies well enough that they own the league’s second-best EPA per play allowed figure in the first quarter.
If the Patriots are looking for some early success in the passing game, they might be able to find it by staying away from corner Jalen Ramsey — who remains among the best in the league at his position — and instead targeting running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Miami allows a 110.5 rating when backs are targeted against them (seventh-worst in the NFL) and a yards per attempt figure of 7.5 (fourth-worst).
Matchup that will take years off your life
Dolphins pass-rushers vs. Patriots offensive line
Miami has six players with double-digit pressures this season, and they’re led by a pair of veterans on the interior who create chaos on a regular basis: Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler.
Campbell, 38, remains highly respected as a hard-to-handle force in his 17th season. If New England’s offensive line hasn’t solved its issues against twists and stunts up front — Maye was strip-sacked on that kind of play a week ago — then they’ll see loads of them Sunday in Miami.
They’ll also have to contend with the speed of Dolphins rookie pass-rusher Chop Robinson off the edge. The first-rounder from Penn State has 12 pressures in his last two games. He typically likes to work off the offensive right, meaning he could see the bulk of his rushing reps against right tackle Demontrey Jacobs.
