After Kyle Larson’s dominant performance in Saturday’s Bristol Night Race, the NASCAR Cup Series playoff field has been reduced from 16 drivers to 12. Ty Gibbs, Brad Keselowski, Harrison Burton, and Martin Truex Jr. all saw their postseason hopes come to an end at Bristol, with four more eliminations expected after Charlotte on Oct. 13.
As the playoff grid resets, here are the major storylines to follow heading into the Round of 12, which includes Kansas, Talladega, and the Charlotte Roval.
Will Talladega Spell Trouble for Larson?
Kyle Larson’s history with superspeedway racing has been turbulent, to say the least. Since his 38th-place finish in his first Daytona 500 in 2014, Larson has struggled at drafting tracks. Talladega looms between two of his best circuits, but if Larson doesn’t win at Kansas, a poor result at Talladega could jeopardize his playoff run. Though he’s strong at the Charlotte Roval, Kansas could determine his title chances. Talladega is notorious for disregarding championship dreams, a reality since it joined the inaugural Chase schedule in 2004.
Hamlin’s Championship Hopes on Thin Ice
Denny Hamlin and the No. 11 team have made it clear over the last month that momentum is critical. A costly penalty after Michigan, which voided 10 playoff points, has sent them on a downward spiral. With finishes of 24th and 23rd at Atlanta and Watkins Glen, Hamlin had to drive brilliantly at Bristol, securing fourth place and a spot in the Round of 12. Unfortunately, his car lacks the speed needed right now, and his superspeedway skills have been hindered by NASCAR’s Next Gen car. Hamlin is far from guaranteed to be a frontrunner at Talladega.
Blaney and Byron Seek to Repeat Success
Ryan Blaney, the reigning champion, and William Byron both secured wins in the Round of 12 last season, propelling them into the Championship Four at Phoenix. Byron’s victory came in the opener at Texas, a track now swapped with Kansas this year. Meanwhile, Blaney’s triumph occurred at Talladega, where he’s won three times in the last four years. While neither driver needs a win to advance, clinching a spot in the Round of 8 early wouldn’t hurt.
Bowman Transitions from Underdog to Contender
Getting past the first round could be the key for Alex Bowman’s championship pursuit. Earlier in the season, he posted finishes of seventh and fifth at Kansas and Talladega, respectively. Moreover, Bowman has never finished outside the top 10 in his five Charlotte Roval appearances. This round suits him well, and with past victories at Las Vegas and Martinsville—two of the three tracks in the Round of 8—he’s positioned strongly for a deeper playoff run.
Who Gets Eliminated?
As each round progresses, the margin for error narrows, with only the best teams and drivers advancing. Here are my predictions for the four drivers who will miss out on the Round of 8.
- Austin Cindric: Cindric has made it to the Round of 12 for the second time in three seasons. Despite silencing some critics in the first round, the No. 2 team lacks the speed and pedigree to overcome the heavyweights. Cindric’s best shot at advancing is a Talladega win, but that’s a risky strategy. His playoff run will likely end at Charlotte.
- Daniel Suarez: Like Cindric, Suarez and the No. 99 team exceeded expectations in the first round. However, Trackhouse Racing has been off the pace in 2024. Suarez’s 31st-place finish at Bristol was only mitigated by strong performances at Atlanta and Watkins Glen. While he shouldn’t be written off entirely, his second playoff campaign with Trackhouse looks set to end like his first.
- Chase Briscoe: Briscoe’s Cinderella story at the Southern 500 won’t be enough to carry him through the Round of 12. While he reached the Round of 8 in 2022, he doesn’t have the same speed this year. Though the Charlotte Roval offers Briscoe a chance to grab a win, he’ll need perfection to make it through. Despite the hopes of his entire organization riding on his shoulders, Briscoe and the No. 14 team don’t have the pace to take down the top contenders.
- Denny Hamlin: It might sound unbelievable, but Hamlin barely scraped into the Round of 12. If he doesn’t secure a victory at Kansas, his championship aspirations could fade quickly. Betting against one of the greatest drivers of the 21st century seems risky, but Hamlin has a reputation for faltering when it matters most. For the 19th consecutive season, it won’t be Hamlin’s year to lift the Cup.
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