You often hear a Talladega race described as a crapshoot, since you just don’t know what will present itself when tumbling dice — or tumbling cars — come to a rest.
Advantages in resources and maybe even ability don’t come into play at all when you’re rolling dice, and frankly, not a lot more than that when we’re talking about plate-racin’ at Talladega (and sister track Daytona, of course).
That’s why the very top and bottom of the odds board looks like it does. A week ago, Kyle Larson was the betting favorite at +350, which based on a $100 bet is the equivalent of 3½-to-1. The longest of the longshots were at +100,000, which is 1,000-to-1.
GREAT AMERICAN READCelebrate a fast-paced history of the Daytona 500 with new book; foreword by Richard Petty
This week, the extremes are much tighter: +1000 at the top and +15000 in the cellar. Nobody can really be favored to win Talladega, where the opportunities to lose are so much greater.
NASCAR odds for Yellawood 500 at Talladega
+1000: Ryan Blaney
+1100: Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano
+1200: Kyle Busch
+1300: William Byron
+1400: Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott
+2000: Michael McDowell, Bubba Wallace, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher, Tyler Reddick, Austin Cindric
+2250: Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell
+2500: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr.
+3000: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Daniel Suarez, Chase Briscoe
+4000: Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Noah Gragson, Todd Gilliland, Justin Haley
+5000: Josh Berry, Corey LaJoie, Ryan Preece, AJ Allmendinger
+6000: Zane Smith, Carson Hocevar, Harrison Burton
+7500: Anthony Alfredo, Shane van Gisbergen, John Hunter Nemechek
+10000: Cody Ware, Daniel Hemric
+15000: JJ Yeley, B.J. McLeod
NASCAR odds makers are finally on to Kyle Larson, Martin Truex
Why are seven racers listed ahead of Kyle Larson, who’s bunched there at +2000 with the likes of Austin Cindric and Michael McDowell?
Why is Martin Truex looking up at 16 racers ahead of him?
Because for a variety of reasons, neither past champ has had a win fall on their laps at Talladega or Daytona. They’re a combined 0-for-118 at the superspeedway plate races (40 tries for Larson, 78 for Truex).
Both have won Xfinity races at Daytona and/or Talladega (Truex once won three straight at Talladega). And yes, both could have multiple plate-race Cup wins if fate had been nicer, but a career-long trend must be respected.
Any betting tips for Talladega?
Yeah, tread lightly.
Up near the top of the board, Kyle Busch is tempting at +1200, largely because he’s so desperate to win a race this year and run his streak to 20 straight seasons with a trophy. He’s not protecting a playoff spot, and he’s not protecting anyone’s feelings, either.
As for winning bigger money, look down there at Harrison Burton. It was just six weeks ago when he won at Daytona. Six weeks! And he’s down there with Carson Hocevar and Zane Smith at +6000, ahead of just seven others.
Sometimes something is just too tempting. And in this case, you’re almost literally looking for lightning to strike twice. No dice.
The deepest I’d go, cash in hand, would the three drivers at +3000 and one of them — Austin Dillon — at +4000.
