The NASCAR Cup Series is down to the semifinal round, which will take place over the next three races. Eight drivers are left in the race for the title: Kyle Larson (+33 points above the cut line), Christopher Bell (+13), Tyler Reddick (+10), William Byron (+4), Ryan Blaney (-4), Denny Hamlin (-8), Chase Elliott (-9) and Joey Logano (-11).
The first race of the Round of 8 is the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. And this round should be a doozy with perhaps the most stacked final eight … ever?
As always, we have a lot of questions about the playoffs so far, the state of NASCAR as a whole and the playoff picture over the next round. We brought our questions to our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
The South Point 400 is this Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Take it away, guys!
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Excuse me while I catch my breath from gasping at how disappointed Alex Bowman must be feeling right now. How does that happen? How often does a DQ affect a playoff spot like this?
Jeff: I can’t recall seeing this before. Disqualifications only happen a couple times a season to begin with, and for a playoff driver in an elimination race to be knocked out after he’s already advanced? WOOF. That definitely hurts, especially because Bowman was having a fantastic playoff run that had him shaping up to be a darkhorse Championship 4 threat. But fair is fair, and his team clearly broke the rules to the point they didn’t even bother to appeal (I’m assuming there was no chance of winning it). So, while it stinks for Bowman, this was about as straightforward a rules violation as it gets; no judgment call here.
Jordan: What an absolute gut punch for a driver who’s had a terrific playoff run. And while the penalty is undoubtedly deserved — Hendrick Motorsports executive Jeff Gordon said as much during an interview on SiriusXM this week — you still can’t but feel for Bowman, who has been through the wringer this season and was resoundingly proving his critics wrong. It’s unfortunate.
Now that the two, in your words, “wacky funhouse rounds” are behind us, do you think that NASCAR was successful in its strategy to spice up the championship race with varied tracks? (You can define what “success” means here…)
Jeff: If NASCAR wanted to knock out some of the top drivers with this schedule and create upsets, that wasn’t successful. Eight of the top nine seeds advanced, with only No. 8 seed Brad Keselowski eliminated early. There was a high potential for chaos, and Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin both could have been out on Sunday had their race gone a bit differently. But as it turned out, all of the big names survived and advanced.
Jordan: “Wacky funhouse” is such a great way to describe how the first two rounds were laid out. Nonetheless, the semifinal round is still, somehow, compromised of the best eight drivers this season to where a legit case could be made that this is the deepest Round of 8 field we’ve ever seen. This should make for a barn-burner next three weeks where NASCAR’s best shines.
Heading into the semifinal round of the playoffs, this field seems stacked — but how does it stack up to previous years?
Jeff: This really might be the strongest playoff field ever in a couple aspects. For one thing, you have all seven drivers with multiple wins this season going head-to-head — and the other driver happens to be the season leader in average finish (Chase Elliott). Additionally, there’s a legitimate chance all eight of these drivers end up in the NASCAR Hall of Fame someday. The talent level is that high. So, in that sense, whoever emerges as the champion stands to be plenty deserving of the crown.
Jordan: Even though Kyle Larson may be in a class of his own, a legit case could be made for any of the eight drivers to win the championship. Expect a high level of competitiveness that should lead to terrific racing and intense drama.
Give us a thousand-foot view of this next round and the tracks involved. What are the pitfalls for different drivers? Who is at a stronger advantage over the next three races?
Jeff: This is easily my favorite round because now we get to see real racing. No funny business. We’re talking legit, straight-up NASCAR racetracks: Two intermediates (Las Vegas and Homestead) plus a classic short track (Martinsville). This is setting up to be strength-on-strength, and it’s unlikely you’ll see anyone backing into wins the next three weeks. Drivers will need to have fast cars, execute in every facet of their game, hope their pit crews have good stops and that their crew chiefs call smart, strategic races. You’re going to be looking at drivers like Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and William Byron for the next couple weeks, and then we’ll see what the playoff picture looks like at Martinsville.
Jordan: That this round is comprised of three of NASCAR’s best tracks is how a semifinal round should be set up. These tracks best allow drivers and their respective teams to showcase their skills. If you advance past this round you’ll have certainly earned it.
Who is your favorite to win in Vegas this weekend?
Jeff: Larson is a heavy favorite for good reason. He’s won back-to-back Vegas races and has finished either first or second in five of the last seven races there. That’s a heck of a track record, and he’s also led more than 602 laps during that stretch (more than double the next-closest driver). There are certainly other drivers who can win, but they’re going to have to go through Larson to do it.
Jordan: This is such an easy pick: Larson. His track record here is ridiculously sublime, with a pair of wins and a second in his last three Las Vegas starts. This is Larson’s race to lose.
Who is a long shot you like to win it?
Jeff: I’ve gotten burned by saying certain races weren’t ripe for longshot wins and then seeing surprise winners. But I’ll go with that again and say one of the elite eight playoff drivers wins the race instead of an underdog. That said, if you want to take a flier on someone, I bet Alex Bowman (+3000) and his team are pretty motivated, and their car was already prepared for Vegas before his surprising DQ at Charlotte. But after Bowman, there’s a huge dropoff to the next driver in the odds (+8000), and I wouldn’t go that low.
Jordan: Although he’s not a longshot, per se, as his odds are listed at +1600, Ross Chastain is not in the playoffs, so he is getting overlooked a bit. But Chastain is really good here, with four top-five finishes in his past five races, and he did win the most recent race on a mile-and-a-half track last month at Kansas Speedway.
Odds for the South Point 400 winner
Odds, via BetMGM, update live.
(Photo of Kyle Larson: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images)
