Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football’s 2024 Week 8 matchup vs. No. 22 Illinois on Saturday in Champaign, Ill.
Fast facts
Matchup: No. 22 Michigan (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 21 Illinois (5-1, 2-1).
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Saturday; Memorial Stadium, Champaign, Illinois.
TV/radio: CBS; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).
Line: Wolverines by 3½.
Availability report
Michigan: Out: S Rod Moore (ACL), DB Ja’Den McBurrows (undisclosed), Questionable: S Jaden Mangham (undisclosed), LB Micah Pollard (undisclosed), edge Derrick Moore (undisclosed), CB Aamir Hall (undisclosed), RB Jordan Marshall (lower body), LB Jimmy Rolder, RB Bryson Kuzdzal, RB Leon Franklin, OL Dominick Giudice and OL Myles Hinton.
Illinois (who missed Week 7): WR Ashton Hollins, RB Kaden Faegin, LB Daniel Brown and OL Magnus Møller.
Scouting report
When Michigan has the ball: For his first time in the maize and blue, seventh-year QB Jack Tuttle has been named the starting quarterback. Tuttle wasn’t terribly impressive his first time out at Washington — he completed 10 of 18 passes for 98 yards and one touchdown while committing two turnovers in the fourth quarter — but it was a notable step up from Alex Orji and Davis Warren as he became the first U-M quarterback to lead three straight scoring drives this season. After missing time with various injuries, he has had a couple weeks operating as the No. 1 in practice with a full gameplan tailored around him. Still, the Wolverines are in search of balance as they rank No. 39 nationally in rushing (191.3 yards per game) 119th in total offense (306.3) and 130th in passing (115).
The Wolverines need to show they can move the sticks, something they haven’t done well while ranking No. 73 in the country in third-down conversions (39.0%). The Illini, meanwhile, have been largely stout under defensive coordinator Aaron Henry and rank No. 33 in scoring defense (20 points per game) and No. 43 in pass yards allowed (197.3 yards per game). They have been gashed in the run at times, ranked No. 77 in rush defense (149.2 yards). Keep an eye on that part. “I thought the guys at Purdue and others did a good job in that the backs ran hard. … so I think there’s some opportunity for us,” U-M running backs coach Tony Alford said. “But we’ve got to go execute.”
When Illinois has the ball: It’s not the typical Bret Bielema offense that U-M saw in 2022, when the Illini ran Chase Brown behind a huge offensive line and tried to ground and pound the whole way. But the Illini do want to run to set up the pass, and that’s where it all starts, according to U-M’s defensive line coach. “You’ve got to stop the run with them,” Lou Esposito said Wednesday. “They’re big, physical, running backs are big, offensive line is massive. … if you let them run the ball it opens everything else up. Quarterback is super shifty, gets himself out of situations, got a good tight end core, really good receiving core. … they make some unbelievable catches on the perimeter so it will be a tall task for us.”
It’s the passing game that’s averaging nearly 250 yards per contest which U-M really has to watch out for. Michigan has given up 71 pass plays of 10 yards or more (No. 128 in the nation); the secondary has to show it has improved its tackling and angles and that it’s done giving up such large chunk plays. Michigan does have the advantage on the ground, where it enters with the No. 3 rush defense in the nation and will face an Illinois team that’s mediocre on the ground to begin with and is likely without its top rusher (Faegin).
Know the foe
Attacking Altmyer: The man who makes Illinois’ offense go is quarterback Luke Altmyer, now a second-year starter in Champaign after he began his career at Ole Miss. “He’s gotten so much better,” Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore said of the Illinois passer this week. “He’s just progressed from last year to this year. You can see him being in the system for another year.”
The signal caller has completed 67% of his passes for more than 1,400 yards as well as 14 touchdowns and one interception; the only other passer in the country with at least 14 scorers and one pick or fewer is James Madison’s Alonza Barnett III. If there’s a major issue on this side of the ball for the Illini, it’s that he has been sacked 19 times in six weeks (most in the Big Ten and fourth-most in the Power Four), but five of those came in the final 15 minutes vs. Penn State in a late comeback effort.
Big bodies: Altmyer has a pair of big-time wide receiver targets. Pat Bryant stands 6 feet 3 and 200 pounds and has 28 catches for 452 yards (16.7 per reception) and seven touchdowns while Zakahri Franklin has also produced as much as U-M’s entire WR room, with 29 grabs for 346 yards and one score.
Franklin has five straight games with at least three grabs or 50 yards while Bryant has had at least three grabs or 60 yards in every game. Expect the Illini to attack the half of the field that doesn’t have Will Johnson on it; meaning defensive backs Zeke Berry and Jyaire Hill could be in for another busy game.
Bret’s bounce-back: While Michigan has long since stopped thinking about 2022, Bret Bielema and Co. still aren’t over their close loss in Ann Arbor that ended with a winning kick from Jake Moody with 12 seconds left.
Michigan players like Kalel Mullings know first-hand Illinois will “punch you in the mouth,” and he said it’s their job to be more prepared for it this time.
It seems to have been eating at Bielema for some time: “I thought we had a good enough football team to go up there and win,” he said this week. “Unfortunately, it didn’t happen, and there were a lot of things that went into it, things we could’ve done better. We didn’t get the chance to rematch these guys last year, so we have the chance to rematch them this year.”
Tony Garcia’s two cents
Anniversary game: This is a huge game for Illinois. One of the most historic moments for this program and in college football happened 100 years ago at Illinois on Friday. That’s when Illinois running back Red Grange became known as the “Galloping Ghost” as he accounted for six touchdowns (four rushing, one passing, one kick return) and two interceptions as a defender as Illinois hammered the Wolverines — also the defending national champion that year — in the first game played at Memorial Stadium. There will be a rededication of the stadium and the Illini will also wear special throwback uniforms for the occasion.
This was always going to be a big weekend in Champaign, but the fact that Illinois has done its part to be 5-1 and ranked while U-M has lost as many times in the past five weeks as it had since December 2022, the Illini can smell their opportunity.
Now or never: Michigan has now talked for weeks about their “urgency, not panic” within Schembechler Hall after losing twice in the first half of the season. Coaches and players are saying the right things about the bye week helping people reset, about how the first half of the year was about finding and establishing an identity and the second half of the year should be improved. It will be a tough task to be sure, considering of the six remaining opponents, four are currently ranked, two are in the top 10 and another (Michigan State) is a rival that has caused problems as an underdog before. Should U-M fall, it would be three losses in seven weeks following a three-year period in which the Wolverines went 40-3. Michigan has several stars who seem poised for the NFL — Namely, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Will Johnson and Colston Loveland — and if the season goes south, who knows what types of business decisions may be made. The way to avoid that? Win.
Prediction
On paper, the matchup is interesting. Illinois can throw the ball and can’t run it, while U-M gives up the pass and stifles the run. On the other side, Michigan can run the ball and can’t throw it, while the Illini have been gashed on the ground this year but have proven to be solid against the pass.
U-M had a chance to rest last week and re-focus its energy as it gears up for the stretch run. One more loss, and a fourth consecutive trip to the College Football Playoff is likely out of the question.
Michigan is a desperate team and there’s no way to fake that; but there’s also no faking what this game means to the Illini. For a mediocre program, on an anniversary weekend, to have a chance to slay the reigning champs and make a statement on national TV? Tuttle will help U-M play complementary football, but the moment means more to Illinois. The pick: Illinois 23, U-M 20.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football prediction and scouting report vs. Illinois
