Former winners return to Martinsville with two championship spots remaining

But even though six playoff drivers will be battling for just two open spots in the Final 4, those drivers have to be feeling good about their chances at a track where all of them have had success in the past.

The last five Cup Series races at Martinsville have been won by drivers currently in the playoffs, and all six of the drivers fighting for their way into the championship have been to victory lane at The Paperclip.

So who has the advantage when the green flag waves on Sunday? Let’s take a look.

The only driver currently in the playoffs who doesn’t have a win at Martinsville is Tyler Reddick, but whether he runs good on Sunday or not doesn’t matter, as the 28-year-old automatically earned his way into the championship with a win last weekend at Homestead-Miami.

Joey Logano has also clinched his spot in the finals with a win two weeks ago at Las Vegas.

That leaves Christopher Bell, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, and Chase Elliott fighting for the last two spots. Bell is currently 29 points above the cutline, and Byron is seven points up. Larson (-7), Hamlin (-18), the defending champion Blaney (-38), and Elliott (-43) are on the outside looking in right now, with Blaney and Elliott likely needing to win this week for a shot at a title.

If any of those six drivers were to win on Sunday they would automatically advance. If someone else wins, two drivers would get into the championship on points.

• When Blaney won at Martinsville last October to automatically qualify for the championship, he became the seventh driver in 10 years since the current playoff format was introduced to get into the championship with a win in the final playoff race.

Three other current playoff drivers have also made it into the finals with a win in Race 9 of the playoffs: Hamlin in 2019, Elliott in 2020, and Bell in 2022.

• History isn’t on the side of Larson, Hamlin, Blaney, or Elliott this weekend. Only one time in 10 years has a driver below the cutline going into the final race moved up and got into the championship on points.
• Martinsville Speedway has hosted a NASCAR Cup Series playoff race every year since 2004. In those 21 races, 12 have been won by Hendrick Motorsports drivers.

In that time, only four teams have won a Martinsville playoff race. Joe Gibbs Racing has five of those wins, Team Penske has two, and Stewart-Haas Racing has one.

• Since 2014, there have been 10 different drivers and no repeat winners in Martinsville playoff races.
• Eight times the winner of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Martinsville Speedway has gone on to win the title that same season.

• Bell, the 2022 Martinsville fall race winner, comes to Martinsville this week following three straight races in which he’s finished fourth or better, and six straight races he’s finished seventh or better. Bell only has one finish outside the top seven in eight playoff races — a 14th place finish at Watkins Glen in Race 2. He has an average finish of 5.5 over the last eight races.
• Byron finished sixth last week at Homestead, his lowest finish in five races. He previously finished in the top five four straight weeks.
• Elliott has struggled in qualifying over the last two months, and has not started a race better than seventh in that span. Despite the low starts, he has three top-5s and and two additional top-10s in the last eight races, including a fifth place finish at Homestead last week.
• Blaney finished second at Homestead last week, his third top-5 in the playoffs. However, he also has three finishes lower than 30th.
• Hamlin was third at Homestead, his second top-5 of the playoffs. He has three other top-10s, and also started fourth the last two weeks.

• Reddick, the regular season champion, has struggled in the playoffs. After a sixth place finish at Atlanta in the first race, he finished 20th or worse four straight weeks, and had his worst race of the playoffs at Las Vegas two weeks ago when he finished 35th.

Reddick would have likely been at risk of elimination at Martinsville had he not passed Blaney and Hamlin on the last lap to win at Homestead last Sunday and automatically move on. Before the win, Reddick had an average finish of 20.5 in seven previous playoff races.

• Larson has two wins in the playoffs, the most of any driver, and both wins helped him move on to the next round. He won at Bristol, the third race of the Round of 16, and won at the Charlotte Roval, the final race in the Round of 8.

But Larson has struggled in other playoff races, with just one other top-5 and no other top-10s. He has an average finish of 17.1 in playoff races he didn’t win, and finished 11th and 13th the last two races.

• Logano won the first playoff race at Atlanta, but was at risk of elimination following the Charlotte Roval race that cut the playoffs from 12 to eight drivers. Logano took the final spot after Alex Bowman was disqualified from the Roval race, and the lost points put him below the No. 22.

Following his good luck, Logano responded by winning at Las Vegas a week later to automatically take a spot in the championship. He finished 28th at Homestead last week.

• Byron comes to Martinsville having won two of the last five races in Southern Virginia. He’s finished in the top-5 at Martinsville in 38.4% of his 13 starts, and has an average finish of 13.8.
• Hamlin leads all active drivers with five Martinsville wins, making him always the favorite when he comes back to his home state. But he hasn’t won at Martinsville since the spring of 2015, the longest Martinsville drought of any playoff driver with a win at The Paperclip.
• Blaney won the Martinsville race last fall, and has always run well there. His average finish of 8.8 makes him the only playoff driver with an average finish in the top 10. He’s finished in the top-5 in 53% of his 17 Martinsville starts.