The Auburn Tigers (3-6) enter the final stretch of their season needing three consecutive victories to qualify for a bowl game. Despite averaging well over 6 yards per play on the offensive side of the ball and holding opponents to under 20 points per contest, turnovers and suspect second half play calling have derailed what at times has looked like a promising second season under Hugh Freeze on the Plains. The Tigers still have the opportunity to finish the season strong, and it would start with a win over Sun Belt bottom feeder Louisiana Monroe (5-4) on Saturday.
Auburn, as expected, is a large favorite coming into the contest. The Tigers are currently 23.5-point favorites to earn their fourth win of the season this week according to BetMGM, but Hugh Freeze’s squad has lost as large favorites before. Here are five ways the Warhawks can shock the football world and secure a second straight losing season for the Tigers.
Auburn does not run the football
Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter is second in the SEC with 913 rushing yards this season. He is also the only running back in the top 5 without more than 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. The senior has managed over 150 more yards than the third place back, Le’Veon Moss, despite receiving just 11 more carries. That is a major problem, and one of the main reasons the Tigers have struggled to rack up wins in 2024. Hugh Freeze and his staff have shown a hesistancy to lean on Hunter as much as they should this season, and that hesitancy could allow an inferior opponent such as Louisiana Monroe to hang around on Saturday.
Ahmad Hardy finds running room
Louisiana Monroe freshman Ahmad Hardy has been nothing short of sensational this season. The Monticello, MS native has rushed for at least 100 yards in all but two games this season. One of those games was against Texas, where he rushed for just 30 yards on 10 carries. Auburn needs to hold the talented freshman to a stat line comparable to that, otherwise Hardy has “game-breaking” ability that could keep UL Monroe in the game.
Auburn makes too many mistakes
Auburn’s offensive metrics have been above average this season, but turnovers and the inability to convert red zone possessions into points have derailed what could be an elite offense. Senior quarterback Payton Thorne has done a much better job taking care of the ball over the past month, throwing just 1 interception in the Tigers last four games, but Auburn has scored 20 points just once in that span. The Tigers inability to find the correct balance between a conservative and aggressive play style is, and has been, a major Achilles heel of the team. If that continues this week, Saturday’s contest will be closer than expected.
Auburn can’t take advantage on special teams
Football games against inferior opponents offer plenty of room for opportunity. One of those opportunities comes in the often forgotten third phase of a football game, special teams. Auburn has been a middle-of-the-pack special teams unit in 2024, and they’ll need to be a great one on Saturday if they hope to cruise to victory. Whether it’s a blocked punt, a kickoff return, or a momentum shifting field goal, the Tigers need to take advantage of superior special teams talent to assert dominance on the Plains.
Hugh Freeze overthinks his game plan
UL Monroe is a talented football team, but they should not be talented enough to defeat Auburn on the road. The Tigers lose this game by beating themselves, and that is exactly what Hugh Freeze needs to avoid on Saturday. Auburn should run the ball consistently well against the Warhawks, and the game plan needs to reflect that.
This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Five reasons Louisiana Monroe pulls off a major upset on Saturday
