Offering credit where due, the Boston Bruins are saying all of the right things after playing poorly enough to help cost their head coach his job. Not to absolve the 2023 Jack Adams winner of all responsibility, but if the B’s were playing to their collective capability, Jim Montgomery wouldn’t be fine-tuning his resume right now. That the club’s 8-9-3 record isn’t poorer with its blazingly bad -21 goal differential even feels fortunate.
But again, full credit to several key individuals — including David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand, and Charlie McAvoy — for absorbing responsibility and fully admitting they’re letting everyone down. Big thumbs up for taking proper accountability. But now what? And what fantasy fallout can we expect from this big change in Beantown?
At first glance post-Montgomery firing, the Bruins’ top nine appears unchanged, while the No. 1 power play also remains intact. No surprise there, as interim head coach Joe Sacco will likely take a minute before making any significant changes. My greater concern anyway is the failure of the team’s more prominent performers to live up to individual expectations.
When was the last time Pastrnak averaged fewer than a point/game? (Answer: 2017-18, and only by a hair.) Marchand is underwhelming Bruins fans and fantasy managers alike, while Pavel Zacha has seven points. Elias Lindholm? Two goals. Two. Unacceptable numbers for Boston’s two top centers, particularly when skating alongside Pastrnak and Marchand respectively, and competing on the No. 1 power play. After averaging 0.64 points/game just last year, Charlie McAvoy is currently stumbling about at 0.35/contest. More often than not, No. 1 Jeremy Swayman has been mediocre to lousy.
The upside in Boston is that’s the only direction matters can take. Up. For those who don’t want to place too much weight on the benefits of the ‘New Coach Bump’ – a phenomenon backed by real figures – take comfort in knowing that many individuals should already be posting better numbers, including those aforementioned top centers.
According to Evolving Hockey, Zacha owns a 7.5% shooting percentage (career average: 11.8%) and 6.08 individual expected goals metric. Lindholm’s current 6.9% shooting percentage falls well below his NHL average of 12.1% and his 5.52 ixG is definitely more than two. The former Flame/Hurricane also needs to shoot more. Statistically, Marchand and Pastrnak should also be experiencing better scoring fortune. While not likely available in your fantasy league, more goals from the team’s top wingers will benefit Zacha and/or Lindholm in the assists department.
If still holding onto either center as a performer, there’s scant point in tossing in that fantasy towel now. I might even give Zacha — rostered in 11% of ESPN Fantasy leagues — a look as an easy add in deeper leagues. Same goes for Lindholm, although he remains largely spoken for in most competition. At least until if/when that new coach bump levels off once more. As for Swayman, if/when the Bruins right their ship, the club’s No. 1 will most predictably improve well. As for by how great a degree, along with everyone else mentioned, we’ll get our first hint when the Bruins host Utah Thursday.
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Ovi’s injury
While we await a more precise timeline than ‘week-to-week’ for when to expect Alex Ovechkin back from his lower-body injury, there’s already some fantasy-related fallout to discuss. Ovechkin’s linemates, Dylan Strome and Aliaksei Protas, are inevitably going to regress as performers. To expect the top center to enduringly rock out at a pace that’s earned him 28 points in 18 contests, and the big, young winger to bang out a point/game, is unreasonable when not spending most of their ice time with Ovechkin at even strength or, in Strome’s case, on the power play. Temper your expectations of both until the league’s top goal-scorer returns.
As for who fills in for Ovechkin on that top unit, Andrew Mangiapane is first to slide in alongside Strome and Protas, who shifts to the right side. Productive throughout his career in bursts and spurts — 35 goals with the Flames in 2021-22! — Mangiapane might be worth a fantasy whirl when jammed in that spot. Either in deeper leagues or daily play. Defender Jakob Chychrun appears promoted to fill the void on the club’s top power play.
I also now expect a little bit more from Connor McMichael and the rest of that “second” line, including Pierre-Luc Dubois and Tom Wilson. Erupting with 12 goals and seven assists in his fourth season as a pro, McMichael’s coming out party is no fluke. An analytics darling, the underlying numbers crowd loves this guy. As does the eye-test crew. Now he’s going to see more minutes. Check if the 23-year-old is somehow available in your league.
Laine’s pending return
Almost eight weeks after injuring his knee in training camp, Patrik Laine is back to practicing with teammates. Reasonable timing, considering he was initially projected to miss two to three months. As for when we can expect to see the new Canadien back on competitive ice, the club’s head coach wouldn’t offer a concrete schedule. “You don’t know exactly what it will be,” Martin St. Louis said Wednesday. “Is it a game? Is it two weeks? You don’t know, so we’ll see how it progresses.” So. Probably no longer than two weeks then? After a pair of home tilts before hitting the road for three, the Habs are back at Centre Bell to host the Islanders Dec. 3.
After suffering a broken clavicle mid-December, spending six months in the NHL’s Player Assistance Program, and then wrecking his knee this fall, Laine is more than a little motivated to get back to the business of competing and scoring goals. Still only 26 years old, the 2016 second overall draft pick has the proven ability to pot one every couple of games or so, when at his best. Once the rust is hustled off, Laine could prove a rather valuable fantasy performer in leagues that reward goals, shots, and power-play points, in particular. Grab him before he’s no longer available in more than 70% of ESPN competition.
Canucks without Miller
In the absence of J.T. Miller (indefinite leave), the Canucks are rolling out a new scoring line, featuring Conor Garland, Dakota Joshua, and Pius Suter at center. Combining on a second-period goal to draw Vancouver even (at the time), the trio proved rather effective in a hard-fought 4-3 loss to the Rangers. Of the three, Garland merits most fantasy attention, and not just because he found the back of the net Tuesday. Logging more on-ice minutes than any other skater, the winger is back in a scoring groove with three points in his past three contests, including a power-play assist. Rostered in only 18% of ESPN Fantasy leagues, Garland is someone that brings a lot to the fantasy table when he’s on.
Back to practicing, Thatcher Demko is “moving in the right direction” (his words) in his recovery/ability to manage after suffering an injury to his popliteus (small knee muscle). Improvement is good, but until we’re dealt a determined timeline, Vancouver’s crease belongs to Kevin Lankinen and Arturs Silovs, a combination that has assumed more of a tandem identity, after Lankinen put in some less-impressive performances. Neither goalie is exactly wowing their managers at the moment. There might be better options on the wire.
