We are in the third week of the NBA season, so some of the very early scorching hot or freezing cold performances are starting to level off and regress to expectation. Nevertheless, there are still players who are either under- or over-achieving expectations.
This week, let’s take a look at some of those that are not quite hitting the marks we anticipated before the season. Should we expect these players to continue as they have been, or is there a likelihood that better days are ahead? Let’s explore.
Rudy Gobert, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
Gobert was expected to solidify his interior presence this season with Karl-Anthony Towns traded away, increasing his rebounding and shot-blocking since he no longer had to coexist with another All-Star center in the same lineup. Instead, Gobert’s volume is down, from averages of 13.7 PPG (66.0 FG%), 12.3 RPG and 1.8 SPG in his first two seasons in Minnesota to 10.4 PPG (60.9 FG%), 10.0 RPG and 1.1 BPG through the first seven games this season.
Verdict: Be patient. Gobert started the season with three straight double-digit rebound efforts, averaging almost exactly his two-year numbers with 12.3 RPG, 1.7 BPG and a 66.7 FG%. He has been playing through an ankle sprain for the past week that has brought his averages down, but when he gets healthy he should return to form. There are some questions about how Gobert matches up against teams that spam the out-top pick-and-roll game and pull him out of the paint, but those types of matchups typically occur in the playoffs when teams can game-plan specifically for the Timberwolves over a full series. In the regular season, Gobert has been Defensive Player of the Year four times, including last season, and has grabbed at least 12.9 RPG with at least 2.0 BPG in five of the last six seasons. The Stifle Tower should find his level.
The NBA rookie class
Literally every rookie is off to a slow start this season. We knew entering this season that this rookie class didn’t have nearly the expectations of last season’s Victor Wembanyama-led group, but even so the current group is underwhelming. Zach Edey leads all rookies with 11.1 PPG, one of only two rookies averaging double digits. Alexandre Sarr has been solid in the middle, leading all rookies with 7.0 RPG and 2.8 BPG, but no other rookie is averaging even half as many blocks. Some of the preseason Rookie of the Year favorites, like Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle and Rob Dillingham are barely seeing the court. Should we just move on from the entire rookie class?
Verdict: Hold the best and stash the rest where you can, but move on where you must. Depending on your league format, you may not have the luxury to carry players that aren’t capable of producing on a regular basis. My sense is that the rookies will improve as the season progresses, with players like Sheppard and Castle earning more substantial minutes and starters like Sarr, Edey and top pick Zaccharie Risacher improving as they settle into the NBA game.
Risacher has scored in double figures in three of his past four games, and if the below .500 Hawks were to lean into the rebuild and perhaps trade some of their veteran leaders, Risacher could become an impact player. Edey and Sarr are even closer to achieving that, so I would keep all three. For the others, if you have the roster space I would suggest holding until they get their chance. But I had to cut both Reed and Castle in a few leagues this week, and if you just can’t afford to wait then cut bait and monitor to potentially re-pick them up when they start to contribute.
Anfernee Simons, PG/SG, Portland Trail Blazers
Simons was one of my favorite breakout candidates this season… to the point that in the Bold Predictions column, I included Simons along with Jalen Green and Cam Thomas as those with potential to vault into the league leaders in scoring this season. While Green and Thomas are scoring well, Simons has been slower out of the gate and has averaged only 19.5 PPG through eight games. Is it time to worry that Simons is in for a down season?
Verdict: Remain patient, for now. Of the eight games Simons has played, five have been blowouts. In the three games he’s played decided by single-digit points, he has averaged 23.0 PPG with at least 20 points scored in all three. The Trail Blazers are expected to be bad this season, so there could be more blowouts to come, but that has been the case for the past few seasons and Simons has shown signs of thriving. Last season Simons averaged 22.9 PPG on a 21-win Trail Blazers team, and the season before he averaged 21.1 PPG on a 33-win squad. Simons is a pure scorer, and he’s approaching his early prime at 25 years old. If he stays healthy, he should revert to form, which means scoring in at least the low-to-mid 20s on a nightly basis.
