Does the drama of first-ever Phillies-Mets playoff series await? originally appeared on NBC Sports Philadelphia
The Phillies and Mets have coexisted for 63 seasons without ever once meeting in the playoffs.
That will change with one more Mets win over the Brewers this week.
Despite the short turnaround of having to hop on a plane to Milwaukee Monday night after a doubleheader in Atlanta, the Mets won, 8-4, coming back from multiple two-run deficits.
The Mets have been on the road since September 22 when they finished off a series win over the Phillies at Citi Field. They flew that night to Atlanta, had two of three games postponed by Hurricane Helene, left for what would have been their final regular-season series in Milwaukee and lost two of three, flew back to Atlanta for the makeup doubleheader and then back to Milwaukee for the wild-card series.
Got all that?
It’s reminiscent, in a way, of the exceptionally long road path the Phillies took to end 2022, ending the regular season with a three-city trip to Chicago, Washington and Houston, then beginning the playoffs with four road games. The Phils were away from home from September 25 through October 12 that year but you wouldn’t have known it the way they ripped through the playoffs until the World Series.
Every team in this National League playoff field is dangerous, perhaps with the exception of the Braves, who have been ravaged by injuries, are running on fumes and lost their biggest remaining advantage with Chris Sale until or unless he’s able to return in the playoffs.
But the Mets, the Brewers, the Dodgers and Padres, they’re all capable of beating the Phillies, which should make for a challenging and exciting postseason.
Remember, though, it’s not as if the Phillies’ last two NLDS matchups looked like cakewalks leading in. The 2023 Braves won 102 games, then lost three of four to the Phillies and went home. The 2022 Braves won 101 games, then lost three of four to the Phillies and went home.
On one hand, the Phils have dominated a team the baseball world saw as superior two years in a row in the NLDS. On the other hand, it’s a reminder that anything can happen in a five-game series, rendering the previous five months meaningless other than the home-field advantage they provide.
The Phillies won the season series over the Mets, 7-6, with the Mets winning three of the final four. Zack Wheeler was on the losing end of a 2-1 decision to end the last meeting at Citi Field, Aaron Nola did not pitch in that series, Ranger Suarez allowed two homers over five innings in his start and Cristopher Sanchez walked five in the Phillies’ lone win.
The Mets’ offense can hurt you in a variety of ways. They have power with Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and the platoon of Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez. All four of them will work counts and Brandon Nimmo is even more selective. Jose Iglesias has been the Mets’ catalyst since June, hitting .337 and keying a rally with his hustle Tuesday night.
It’s important this time of year to find different avenues to runs. You’re not facing bad teams, you’re not facing their weakest relievers and you’d better be able to draw walks, string hits together and make a few things happen with your legs. The Mets can do all of that, and there’s no intimidation factor since they face the Phillies so frequently.
It would benefit the Phillies, obviously, for the Brewers to even the wild-card series on Wednesday night, forcing both teams to use another starting pitcher Thursday and tax their bullpens in a decisive Game 3. If the series ends Wednesday, the Mets will have two full days off before the NLDS to recuperate. Cutting that in half for either team would go a long way.
Frankie Montas goes for Milwaukee, lefty Sean Manaea for New York in Game 2. Neither team has listed its probable starter for Game 3, should it happen.
The pitchers who started Games 1 and 2 of the wild-card series — Luis Severino, Freddy Peralta, Manaea and Montas — would all be unlikely to appear in the NLDS until at least Game 2. The first game is Saturday at 4:08 p.m. and even Severino and Peralta would be pitching on short rest. They would be on regular rest for Sunday’s Game 2, also at 4:08 p.m.
The Mets, if they advance, could turn to lefty David Peterson to begin the NLDS. He was a huge reason why they made the playoffs, going 5-2 with a 2.41 ERA over his final 11 starts.
The Brewers’ starting staff is entirely right-handed with Peralta, Montas, Tobias Myers, Aaron Civale and Colin Rea. Given the presence of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, Milwaukee might start an opener in multiple games of the NLDS if they advance past the Mets.
The matchup could determine the Phillies’ rotation. The Mets skew right-handed with Alonso, Vientos, Martinez, Iglesias, Tyrone Taylor and Francisco Alvarez. The switch-hitting Lindor has been slightly worse in his career against righties. This is where the left-handed Nimmo and Winker become so important for them. Winker had a brutal month of September, going 3-for-42, but his two-run triple was one of the biggest hits of Tuesday’s win.
With so many righties to worry about if they face the Mets, the Phils might opt to start Nola in Game 2 over Sanchez. That wouldn’t sound surprising on the surface, but Sanchez out-pitched Nola over the final two months and has a significantly lower ERA at home (2.21) — where Game 2 would take place — than on the road (5.02).
There are two off-days built into the NLDS: Monday, after Game 2, and Thursday, after Game 4. This will allow the Phillies to start Wheeler in Game 1 and then pitch him again on one fewer day of rest in Game 4 if they so choose. Alternatively, they could save him for a do-or-die Game 5 on one extra day of rest.
Many decisions and outcomes will take place before that call is made, but beyond rest and home-field, it’s the primary advantage the Phillies carry into the playoffs. They can set their rotation up exactly the way they want; their opponent cannot.
The Phillies will hold an intrasquad game on Wednesday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. Spencer Turnbull, out since the final week of June with a lat strain, is one of several pitchers who will appear in the game and it’s his opportunity to show the coaching staff and front office he’s healthy enough to earn the final bullpen spot on the NLDS roster. Kolby Allard, Tyler Gilbert and Max Lazar are also candidates for that job.
At 7:38 p.m., Rob Thomson will be glued to his TV to see whether the drama of a Phillies-Mets NLDS awaits or if the Brewers can help the cause.
