He tried to tell us. Tried after Georgia escaped Kentucky with a one-point win, and again after the Bulldogs beat Florida and its third-string quarterback in the final minutes in Jacksonville.
Winning on the road in the SEC is a losing proposition, and if you don’t believe what Georgia coach Kirby Smart has been preaching all season, here’s a better way to explain it:
Alabama is not out of the College Football Playoff race.
Why? Because Tennessee has to win at Vanderbilt Saturday to not only make the playoff field, but to officially banish college football’s Death Star.
“I just think a home game in general in the SEC is hell on the road team,” Smart said. “I told our offensive line that it’s harder in the SEC to play on the road at offensive line, and some of those positions that are timing positions and snap count positions, than it is in the NFL until the playoffs.”
Maybe now it’s sinking in. Or maybe it won’t until Vanderbilt beats No. 8 Tennessee and the Vols fall in line with a season of gut-punch losses on the road by the elite of the conference.
And yes, moves No. 13 Alabama into position to return to the College Football Playoff for the ninth time in the 11-year history of the tournament.
“We didn’t play to the level we’re capable of,” Tide coach Kalen DeBoer said of the ugly 24-3 loss at Oklahoma — which prior to last weekend, had one conference win in its inaugural season in the SEC.
That drop in level of play for Alabama coincides with two other losses this season, when the Tide went on the road and lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee. But Alabama isn’t alone in road misery.
No. 7 Georgia has lost twice away from home (Alabama and Ole Miss), and Tennessee lost at Arkansas and Georgia. No. 20 Texas A&M lost at Auburn and No. 15 South Carolina, which lost at Alabama.
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All three of No. 21 Missouri’s losses are on the road (Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina), and LSU dropped out of the CFP race over the last month with road losses to Texas A&M and Florida.
No. 14 Ole Miss, with a CFP spot on the line and two weeks to prepare, lost at Florida as a double-digit favorite.
The only team that hasn’t lost on the road is No. 3 Texas, which needed a critical fourth down conversion (among other big plays) to get out of Nashville with a three-point win over Vandy. Texas plays at Texas A&M Saturday with a spot in the SEC championship game on the line.
Lose on the road to the Aggies, and there’s no telling what happens to the Longhorns’ CFP hopes — which have been propped up and based on projections since the first poll earlier this month. Because it certainly hasn’t been based on wins against the committee’s top 25, of which Texas has none.
Texas has as many signature wins this season as difficult conference road games. Don’t automatically assume the CFP will give Texas a pass if it loses at Texas A&M.
Much like the scheduling pass the SEC gave Texas in its first season in the conference, but that’s another story for another time.
This is about Alabama, and the reality that no matter how badly it has looked on the road, the Tide are still a Vanderbilt win over Tennessee from returning the CFP.
Just how bad has it been? Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe has completed 57 percent of his passes in those three road losses, and has 2 TDs and 6 INTs.
He has completed 70 percent of his passes, and has 13 TDs and 3 INTs in every other game.
Alabama wide receiver Ryan Williams, the SEC’s most dynamic player, has 13 catches in the three losses (14.8 yard per catch.). He has 29 catches in the nine wins, averaging 21.1 yards per catch.
There’s nothing random about it. The Alabama defense is giving up 29.3 points per game in the three losses, and an average of 13.1 in every other game.
Still not convinced? Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has 3 TDs and 7 INTs away from Athens. He has 20 TDs and 5 INTs in every other game — including the best game of his career in a win over Tennessee.
A 14-point loss by the Vols on the road in Athens.
“It’s a different energy playing at home,” Beck said. “We feed off it.”
So will Vanderbilt this weekend, and Alabama in its annual fistfight with Auburn, comfortably situated Saturday in the friendly confines of Tuscaloosa.
Which may be the best news of all this week for Alabama.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Alabama’s College Football Playoff hopes rest on SEC road chaos
