For the second time in six years, all that stands between Notre Dame and a spot in the College Football Playoff is a road trip to its rival, Southern California (3:30 p.m., CBS).
When the Fighting Irish were in this scenario in 2018, when a 24-17 victory gave them an unbeaten regular season and the No. 3 seed in the playoff.
This year the stakes against USC (6-5) are the same. Notre Dame enters with a 10-1 mark and ranked No. 6 by the College Football Playoff committee. A victory Saturday all but guarantees the Irish a playoff spot and gives them a strong chance at hosting a first-round game Dec. 20 or 21.
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Here are three keys to the 95th meeting between the Irish and Trojans, and the South Bend Tribune’s staff predictions.
Throwing the ball against an improved USC defense
USC had one of the nation’s worst defenses in head coach Lincoln Riley’s first two seasons. That proved to be their downfall when chasing a 2022 CFP bid and a key reason USC lost five of its final six regular-season games last year.
The Trojans have turned that around under defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn, allowing 21.3 points per game to rank 32nd of 134 Division-I teams. Last year, they surrendered 34.4 points.
Leading the Trojan defense is linebacker Easton Mascarenas with 88 tackles, three sacks and two interceptions. Linebacker Mason Cobb is tied in interceptions while recording 68 tackles, while Jaylin Smith has been USC’s top cornerback with 50 tackles and two interceptions.
The Trojan pass defense is susceptible, ranking 93rd in the country by allowing 235.6 pass yards. Notre Dame isn’t know for its throwing attack as it ranks 99th with a 198.1 passing yards. Can Riley Leonard make enough passing plays to help Notre Dame to a win?
Handling new USC quarterback Jayden Maiava
The Trojans benched starter Miller Moss in favor of Maiava two weeks ago. A transfer from UNLV, Maiava has started in victories against Nebraska and UCLA. He went 25 of 35 passing for 259 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against the Huskers and 19-35, 221 yards and one touchdown against the Bruins.
The lack of turnovers has been key. Moss had thrown nine interceptions in his nine starts. Notre Dame’s defense is known for its ball-hawking, illustrated by the 15 interceptions and 25 fumbles by its opponents (13 forced, 11 recovered). Forcing Maiava into mistakes could be a huge.
Staying focused on the task at hand
Notre Dame has lost three of the last five meetings in Los Angeles. Though the 2018 and 2012 teams completed undefeated regular seasons in LA, the Irish didn’t play well against underwhelming Trojan teams. Notre Dame’s 38-27 loss in their last visit to the Coliseum capped Caleb Williams’ 2022 Heisman Trophy campaign.
There will be plenty of chatter about what a Notre Dame win would mean. The Irish have done a tremendous job of focusing on each opponent since the Northern Illinois loss. Can they keep that focus?
South Bend Tribune staff picks for week 12 at USC
MIKE BERARDINO: Notre Dame 24, USC 20. Irish flirt with disaster, but these Trojans don’t know how to finish.
TOM NOIE: Notre Dams 31, USC 14. The against-all-odds odyssey is complete – 10 weeks, 10 straight wins for Notre Dame. Next stop, a College Football Playoff game. A College Football playoff home game. Nobody saw that coming in September.
AUSTIN HOUGH: Notre Dame 23, USC 13. This season started with a much-needed 23-13 road win. It ends with a much-needed road win by the same score.
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: What are the keys for Notre Dame football against USC?
