Matchday 6 of AFC qualification for the 2026 FIFA World Cup is in the books, and the three group tables are starting to take shape.
Indonesia sprung the surprise of the window by defeating Saudi Arabia 2-0 on Tuesday, while the Socceroos and Bahrain couldn’t be separated in a thrilling 2-2 draw in Raffa — with both results leaving Group C perilously tight.
Elsewhere, Palestine held Son Heung-Min‘s South Korea to a 1-1 draw in Amman, while Japan and Iran recorded wins that all but sealed their spots at FIFA’s expanded 48-team showpiece event.
ESPN writers Gabriel Tan and Joey Lynch reflect on some of Asia’s burning questions after six games.
Are Australia going to miss out on World Cup qualification?
Tan: In the bygone era of a 32-team World Cup, yes. But surely the Socceroos aren’t going to miss out on one of the eight guaranteed tickets for Asia.
It is also worth noting that, for all the trials and tribulations they have already been through this campaign, they actually remain second in Group C and on course for qualification as early as next June.
In what is a frankly remarkable table, only one point now separates five of the six teams — apart from runaway leaders Japan — in Group C. A lot of movement can still — and is likely to — happen in the four remaining matchdays.
But even if the Socceroos do slip out of the top two, they would still be expected to finish above two from Indonesia, Bahrain and China and give themselves another go in the fourth round, where they will be up against nations they will be even more fancied to beat.
Then again, being the clear favourites hasn’t stopped them from dropping points against Bahrain and Indonesia already.
Lynch: Despite Australia’s best efforts, they’re probably not going to miss out on qualification, no. Thanks to Gianni Infantino’s move to swell the global showcase, they somehow still find themselves well-placed to not only advance through this stage of qualification, but to do so as an automatic qualifier.
With just one win from their opening six games, however, that they are in second place is just as much an indictment on their competition in Group C as it is a testament to their resilience. If the Socceroos were in Group A, they’d be in fourth place, six points back of the automatic qualification slots.
With a four-month break until the next round of fixtures, in which Australia will host Indonesia before travelling to meet China, new coach Tony Popovic will finally be afforded the luxury of time to prepare for his side’s games. The expectation will be that he uses that time to deliver much-improved performances and, more importantly, two wins. The 51-year-old had shown some signs of promise in his opening games in charge of the Socceroos, but Tuesday’s 2-2 draw with Bahrain was a step backwards. The onus will be well and truly on him in March to show that he can raise the level of this side.
Is the Saudi Pro League harming the national team?
Tan: This is quite literally the billion-dollar question, given such sentiments were the prelude to Saudi Football Federation tearing up the lucrative contract of former manager Roberto Mancini last month.
Having a sudden influx of world-class players in your local league is a double-edged sword — as the last decade of Chinese football will attest to.
On the one hand, having names such as Cristiano Ronaldo and Neymar has inevitably raised the profile of the Saudi Pro League, and the commercial benefits that follow can be a boost if profits are being recycled back into the competition. There is also the knowledge and experience of top-level players that their local teammates can learn from, which can raise individual levels of professionalism, fitness, etc.
On the flipside, however, there is no shying away from the fact that regular first-team football is key for any footballer. Even the biggest names are often left on the sidelines when it is time for international duty if they are not garnering enough minutes at their clubs.
Already with a limited pool of players to choose from compared with when he was in charge of Italy, Mancini was valid in suggesting the Saudi national team cause wasn’t being helped by the fact that his players were hardly getting any football on a weekly basis. Perhaps a limit on foreign players, as was the case previously and still is in other Asian leagues, would have been the simple solution right from the beginning?
Lynch: There is some level of irony that the petrodollar-fuelled Saudi march on global football — which next month will almost certainly write another chapter when it is awarded hosting rights for the 2034 World Cup, despite objections from human rights groups — has hit a speedbump in the performance of its national side.
Though it needs to be acknowledged that new coach Hervé Renard was dealing with some absences during his first window in charge, the Frenchman assembled a squad in his first window who had played an average of 50% of available match minutes of their domestic campaigns this season, with that number falling even lower if one removes the three players — Marwan Al-Sahafi and Faisal Al-Ghamdi at Beerschot and Saud Abdulhamid at AS Roma — who don’t play in the Saudi Pro League.
With a home World Cup seemingly a decade away, something has to give if Saudia Arabia wants to foster a generation of players that can impress in what will likely be the capstone efforts of their international spending spree.
Are Indonesia quietly putting together the most impressive AFC World Cup qualifying campaign?
Tan: Apart from the all-conquering Japan, “yes” would be the simple answer. Even more so after Tuesday’s almighty win over Saudi Arabia.
Prior to that, they would have been deserving of plenty of credit but battling draws against more-illustrious opposition isn’t something that hasn’t been done before. It is always possible to frustrate as underdogs by putting players behind the ball, even if they would consider themselves unlucky to have been denied an opening win against Bahrain — with the entire nation crying foul over the amount of time added on after the 90th minute that paved the way for Bahrain’s equaliser.
Back-to-back defeats to China and Japan threatened to put Indonesia back in their place but with Tuesday’s inspirational display — and they could even have netted more than the 2-0 scoreline — once more showed that they aren’t here just to make up the numbers.
It is impossible for Indonesia not to get carried away. And they should dream, but with some caution. They’re only at the start of this journey, so it is possible 2026 may be one World Cup cycle too soon for them.
Lynch: As Gabe says, the seemingly unstoppable march of Japan means that you can’t quite say that Indonesia have had the most impressive campaign thus far. And one also needs to acknowledge the undefeated, if less convincing, run that Iran have gone on, too. But when weighting expectations against results, and with a signature win over Saudi Arabia at a fever-pitch Gelora Bung Karno Stadium now in the bag, it’d be a brave person who would claim that Tim Garuda haven’t put together the most memorable campaign in this phase of Asian qualifiers.
One of four sides sitting on six points in Group C, trailing the Socceroos on seven and way adrift of Japan’s 16, that Indonesia is even in a position to be in a conversation surrounding automatic qualification for the World Cup is a testament to the rapid development that the nation has undergone in recent times. While breaking into the top two may prove beyond them, qualifying for the next phase, and ensuring themselves another set of highly competitive, high-stakes fixtures would only boost Indonesia’s growth further.
Then again, given the up-and-down nature of Australia’s form and that they’ll get both Bahrain and China in Jakarta in their subsequent fixtures, whose to say that Shin Tae-yong’s side can’t maybe start to dream?
Who is the next Son Heung-Min; an AFC player to make a global breakthrough?
Lynch: To christen anyone as being the second-coming of Son is probably more a poisoned chalice of expectation than it is an honorific at this point, such is the legacy of a player who already has claims on being the greatest Asian player of all time.
If we were to look for an AFC player who has the potential to become something approaching a renowned name across Europe, however, then someone like Japanese gloveman Zion Suzuki wouldn’t be the worst shout in the world.
As a goalkeeper, the 22-year-old and Son are clearly very, very different players but, after being backed through some growing pains and disgusting online abuse by coach Hajime Moriyasu, Suzuki has established himself as Japan’s No. 1 goalkeeper. After moving across from Sint-Truiden during the offseason, he’s also established himself as a regular starter in Serie A with Parma this campaign and, reportedly, has repeatedly caught the eye of Manchester United during his development.
Further, given Suzuki’s tender age, he could very easily be in the spotlight with one of the best national teams in the world — Japan are looking the most likely to break the European and South American duopoly over the World Cup — for a long time to come.
Tan: With no one currently near the rarefied air that Son occupies, to reach his world-class level would then require sufficient remainder of a footballing lifespan to improve exponentially, which likely rules out the likes of Mehdi Taremi, Hwang In-Beom and Hidemasa Morita — who are already established in Europe but in more advanced stages of their careers.
Jordan’s Musa Al-Taamari is a real talent and has impressed in Ligue 1 with Montpellier but, at 27, also has less time to reach Son’s lofty heights.
Takefusa Kubo and Lee Kang-In are both familiar names that have the potential to reach a high level but, for a more intriguing option, I’m gunning for Abbosbek Fayzullaev.
The pint-sized playmaker is currently on the books of CSKA Moscow and scored all three of Uzbekistan’s goals this international window — including two headers against Qatar in a surprise cameo as a target man in the absence of captain Eldor Shomurodov in a performance that belied his 1.67 metres.
At only 21, Fayzullaev will be a player that Uzbekistan — who are on track to be surprise debutants at the 2026 World Cup — build around for the next decade.
