When the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 2024 season were unveiled on Tuesday night, BYU came in at the same spot — No. 9 — where it landed in the latest Associated Press and coaches top 25 rankings.
While that is the highest spot BYU has ever been in the CFP rankings, the undefeated Cougars (8-0, 4-0 in Big 12) sit behind five teams with one loss and came in fourth among the five remaining unbeaten teams at the FBS level.
Following the announcements of those inaugural CFP rankings, multiple national analysts weighed in on what they thought the CFP committee got right, what it got wrong and what these initial rankings could mean for the playoff picture when the 12-team field is revealed next month.
One thing was clear from these analysts: The Big 12 has the biggest uphill climb among Power 4 conferences to get multiple teams into the playoff based off these first rankings.
Yes, there will be four more weekly CFP rankings before the final one, as well as the 12-team seedings, come out on Dec. 8.
Still, while there are four Big 12 schools in the initial CFP rankings — Iowa State is No. 17, Kansas State is No. 19 and Colorado is No. 20 — it might be a one-bid league come the postseason.
Here’s what several national pundits thought about BYU’s position, as well as what these first rankings said about the committee’s perception of the Big 12.
ESPN’s David Hale
Hale put BYU in the No. 1 spot in his Anger Index for the first week of the CFP rankings, making an argument that the Cougars should be the most upset with where they came in.
“There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking,” Hale wrote. “The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.”
BYU was one spot behind fellow unbeaten Indiana of the Big Ten. The Cougars have a strength of schedule of 63 in ESPN’s Football Power Index, while the Hoosiers have an SOS of 103.
The Cougars are also three spots ahead of Boise State, which is important, because while the top five conference champions earn an automatic spot in the CFP, the top four conference champions will get a first-round bye, regardless of conference.
BYU also has two wins over teams ranked in the initial top 20 — No. 13 SMU (on the road) and No. 19 Kansas State.
“Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?” Hale asked.
If BYU were to lose a game, it’s not unthinkable that Boise State of the Mountain West Conference would be close enough to surpass BYU for that final top four spot.
“What if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State,” Hale wrote.
“What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.”
CBS Sports’ Brandon Marcello
Marcello identified both Indiana and BYU as teams he views were underrated in the initial CFP rankings, while he had No. 6 Penn State and No. 24 Missouri, of the Big Ten and SEC, respectively, as overrated teams.
“This isn’t necessarily an issue, and we’re honestly surprised the committee ranked BYU in the top 10, but we understand the frustration from BYU fans,” Marcello wrote. “Five one-loss teams are ranked ahead of the undefeated Cougars, who own wins against No. 13 SMU on the road and against No. 19 Kansas State. Those are fantastic victories, but weighing them down is the overall strength of the schedule. The Cougars’ combined record among opponents is 34-38, and the strength of schedule is 61st, according to ESPN’s data.”
Marcello is a bit less bullish on the notion that BYU was slighted, while suggesting that if the Cougars win out, any issues will be ironed out.
“Again, this all comes down to ‘eye test,’ based at least on selection committee chairman Warde Manuel’s comments to the media Tuesday night,” Marcello wrote. “All the Cougars can do is continue winning and improve their resume. Should they win out and then lose in the Big 12 Championship Game, BYU might still be in the field, too.”
Action Network’s Brett McMurphy
McMurphy didn’t mince words on the Big 12′s fate, as his first of four thoughts about the CFP rankings was titled “The Big 12 is screwed.”
“The Big 12 champion will be part of the 12-team playoff. That much is certain. But if Boise State wins out and BYU doesn’t finish 13-0 as the Big 12 champ, the Big 12 champion will not earn a first-round bye,” McMurphy wrote, while agreeing with Hale’s assessment regarding the Big 12 and Boise State’s initial placement.
“That’s because Big 12 leader BYU (8-0) was ranked No. 9, but only three spots ahead of No. 12 Boise State (7-1), the Mountain West favorite. A 12-1 Boise State/Mountain West champ will likely finish higher than any one-loss Big 12 champ.”
Can Iowa State, Kansas State and/or Colorado move into at-large contention over the next month? McMurphy paints a grim picture for the Big 12 hopes to become a multiple-bid league, based off the initial rankings.
“While BYU must win out to earn the Big 12 a first-round bye, the chances are slim that the Big 12 will have a second team ranked high enough in the final poll to earn a second bid,” McMurphy wrote.
“No. 17 Iowa State, No. 19 Kansas State and No. 20 Colorado are all within striking distance of getting into at-large contention, but if any of those teams don’t win out, they will shuffle back down the rankings.
“If one of them wins out and wins the Big 12 title, it’s unknown if they would leapfrog 12-1 Boise State and also likely would knock BYU out of the running for an at-large spot.”
USA Today’s Blake Toppmeyer
Toppmeyer believes BYU was “snubbed” by the CFP committee, and that’s a negative for the Big 12.
He also noted that while the Big 12 and ACC could both be one-bid leagues, the ACC is perhaps in a better position because SMU, one of the teams the Cougars have beaten, comes in at No. 13.
If the Mustangs win out and win the ACC title game over Miami, which is ranked No. 4, that opens the door for the ACC to get two CFP bids, Toppmeyer explained.
“If BYU wins the Big 12, the conference almost certainly will be a one-bid league. If the Cougars lose in the Big 12 championship game, they might slide to the wrong side of the bubble, thereby still limiting the Big 12 to one bid,” Toppmeyer wrote.
“The committee really did BYU dirty. The Cougars play complementary football. They’re among 11 teams that rank in the top 25 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
“They’re the only team to beat SMU — and they did so on the road.
“They’re one of two teams to beat Kansas State — and they routed the Wildcats.”
The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel
When asked if it’s safe to assume that one loss would end BYU’s bid for a CFP spot, Mandel was more optimistic about the Cougars’ chances in that possible scenario.
For him, with five weeks of games left — four weeks in the regular season and one conference championship week — there’s time for other teams to lose around BYU.
Keeping that in mind, though, Mandel wrote that having the Cougars behind five one-loss teams combined from the SEC and Big Ten “confirms what we’ve suspected all along that the committee is not going to give teams outside the ‘Power 2′ (excluding Notre Dame) the same benefit of the doubt, even if chairman Warde Manuel insists the committee doesn’t care about conferences.”
It could come down to when BYU loses, as much as if the Cougars lose — if BYU can manage to lose only once and stay in contention.
“A 12-1 BYU team that does not lose until the conference title game will be safely in, because the committee won’t drop it far for playing and losing an extra game. But Tuesday night’s rankings did raise a possibility I’d previously dismissed: No. 12 Boise State could pass the Big 12 champ for the fourth first-round bye,” Mandel wrote.
“Now, if BYU loses to, say, Utah this week, and still makes the conference title game but loses to, say, Colorado? I would not like the Cougars’ chances.”
What is the remaining schedule for the four Big 12 teams in the CFP rankings?
As already noted, four Big 12 teams were ranked in the initial CFP rankings.
Based on the final month of competition for each of these teams, it may be difficult to envision another Big 12 team jumping into the at-large discussion without help.
And would BYU be considered for an at-large spot if it went unbeaten in the regular season but lost in the Big 12 championship game?
Here’s a look who each Big 12 team ranked in the CFP rankings will play over the next four weeks:
No. 9 BYU (8-0, 5-0 Big 12)
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Saturday — at Utah (4-4, 1-4 Big 12)
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Nov. 16 — vs. Kansas (2-6, 1-4 Big 12)
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Nov. 23 — at Arizona State (6-2, 3-2 Big 12)
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Nov. 30 — vs. Houston (4-5, 3-3 Big 12)
By win-loss record, Arizona State is the toughest test for the Cougars the rest of the way and could be the most impressive win for BYU in the committee’s eyes.
Before that, though, BYU needs to win at rival Utah. The Cougars haven’t won in Salt Lake City since 2006 and while the Utes, the league’s preseason favorite, haven’t lived up to their lofty expectations, it’s a rivalry game and anything is possible.
No. 17 Iowa State (7-1, 4-1 Big 12)
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Saturday — at Kansas (2-6, 1-4 Big 12)
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Nov. 16 — vs. Cincinnati (5-3, 3-2 Big 12)
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Nov. 23 — at Utah (4-4, 1-4 Big 12)
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Nov. 30 — vs. No. 19 Kansas State (7-2, 4-2 Big 12)
The Cyclones will be favored in every game over the next few weeks before their regular-season finale.
The home game against Kansas State, if the Wildcats can hold up their end, will be the best chance for Iowa State to make a big impression to the CFP committee.
No. 19 Kansas State (7-2, 4-2 Big 12)
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Nov. 16 — vs. Arizona State (6-2, 3-2 Big 12)
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Nov. 23 — vs. Cincinnati (5-3, 3-2 Big 12)
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Nov. 30 — at No. 17 Iowa State (7-1, 4-1 Big 12)
The Wildcats have one fewer regular-season game remaining than the other three ranked Big 12 teams, but they have an advantage over the others: Every remaining opponent has a winning record.
The biggest challenge is playing Iowa State on the road in the season finale, though wins over Arizona State and Cincinnati at home could also make an impression. Everything comes down to the final regular-season game, though.
No. 20 Colorado (6-2, 4-1 Big 12)
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Saturday — at Texas Tech (6-3, 4-2 Big 12)
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Nov. 16 — vs. Utah (4-4, 1-4 Big 12)
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Nov. 23 — at Kansas (2-6, 1-4 Big 12)
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Nov. 30 — vs. Oklahoma State (3-6, 0-6 Big 12)
Like BYU, the Buffaloes do not have a game against a ranked opponent over the final four weeks of the regular season.
The most critical of those games, from an impression perspective, comes this Saturday when Colorado travels to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are coming off a win over Iowa State, and a road victory over Texas Tech could help the Buffaloes earn a sizable jump in next week’s CFP rankings.
