LSU ranked No. 15 in Tuesday’s initial College Football Playoff rankings. As it stands, the Tigers are out of the field, but at No. 15, LSU is in striking distance.
Saturday’s meeting with Alabama can make or break the Tigers’ season. If LSU wins, the playoff is firmly in view. A loss and the Tigers are out of it.
Today, we’ll use the Allstate Playoff Predictor to shed some light on LSU’s hopes. ESPN’s interactive site that allows us to see how certain games impact a team’s playoff chances.
LSU enters Saturday with a 22% chance to make the playoff. Not likely, but not a long shot.
We know if LSU wins out, makes the SEC title, and wins the conference, the Tigers are in with an automatic bid. But let’s say LSU wins out in the regular season and falls short in the SEC title.
In that scenario, LSU has an 85% shot to make the CFP — a 26% chance of hosting in the first round and a 60% shot of being a visitor.
Let’s say LSU loses on Saturday but wins its final three games. At 9-3, the predictor gives LSU a 27% chance of making the field. That seems high given how strong the Big Ten is shaping up to be.
Now, let’s imagine LSU finishes 3-1 but beats Alabama. If LSU beats Alabama and loses to Florida, then takes care of business against Vandy and OU, LSU’s chances sit at 42%.
The numbers are clear. Saturday is close to a must win for LSU. A loss closes most available paths to the playoff but a win gives LSU a few ways in.
This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: What the Allstate Playoff Predictor tells us about LSU’s playoff hopes
