Lots of furrowed brows about the NASCAR product on short tracks since the 2022 unveiling of the Next Gen race car.
The smaller bullrings, like Bristol, Richmond and now North Wilkesboro since its revival, are supposed to be NASCAR’s bread-n-butter, where the Rubbin is Racin’ crowd cracks its knuckles and gives ’em a little what-for.
Instead, it’s been a lot of single-file Sundays (and a few Saturdays, for that matter) because it’s just too damn hard to pass. They’ll eventually figure out the proper combo of tires, aero and horses to make it better — at which time the racing at intermediate tracks will probably begin to suffer (nature of the beast!).
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Meanwhile, there’s one more chance in 2024 to get it right in cramped quarters: Martinsville, Race 35, and given the circumstances, it’s impossible to imagine we won’t get some theatrics to match the dramatics.
Eight playoff drivers, two with berths clinched for the championship race next week. Six without. One of the six (Christopher Bell) has a decent points cushion, another (William Byron) has a slim one, another (Kyle Larson) is slightly behind his teammate Byron, and three others (Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott) need to win Sunday.
Throw in the teammate calculus and you’ve really got a lot to wrap your minds (and rooting interests) around.
Let’s see what the gamblers are thinking …
NASCAR betting odds for Martinsville
From Hard Rock Bets
+475: Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson
+575: Ryan Blaney
+800: Chase Elliott
+900: William Byron
+1200: Christopher Bell
+1500: Joey Logano
+1750: Martin Truex Jr.
+2250: Tyler Reddick
+2500: Ty Gibbs, Chase Briscoe
+3000: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman
+4000: Chris Buescher
+7500: Ryan Preece, Austin Cindric
+10000: Carson Hocevar, Daniel Suarez, Todd Gilliland
+15000: Austin Dillon, Noah Gragson
+20000: Michael McDowell, Shane van Gisbergen, Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
+25000: Zane Smith, Erik Jones
+50000: John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Harrison Burton
+100000: Kaz Grala, Josh Bilicki
Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson favored
Wagers are trending strongly to the playoff drivers, of course. Makes sense.
If Hamlin wins, it adds to the palace intrigue for next week at Phoenix, given the anti-trust suit involving the 23XI team co-owned by Hamlin, Michael Jordan and Curtis Polk.
Reddick, a 23XI driver, is already locked into the championship chase after winning last week. Giving the “plaintiffs” two of the four contenders could make for some awkward moments.
Of the playoff racers at Martinsville, I like Bell because you absolutely know he’s gonna be there at the end. He’s been a top-5 fixture since mid-summer.
Now, let’s look where easier money can be made …
Odds to win the Cup Series championship
+300: Christopher Bell
+325: Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick
+600: Kyle Larson
+700: William Byron
+2000: Denny Hamlin
+2500: Ryan Blaney
+4000: Chase Elliott
Chase Elliott given slim NASCAR title hopes
What? Atop the board is a guy who technically hasn’t even qualified for the “final four” yet.
Bell has a 27-point cushion over fifth place and will lean on that if he doesn’t win Sunday. So it seems the bettors are simply assuming he’s in, and given his long streak of lead-pack finishes, why not assume he’s the odds-on favorite at Phoenix?
But look at the bottom three above — Hamlin, Blaney and Billy Clyde. Payoffs are big because you’re kinda-sorta betting on them to win two straight — Sunday to make the Phoenix four (phour?), and next week to win the whole shebang.
No, you don’t have to win Phoenix, just finish ahead of the other three, but of the 10 four-for-the-Cup races since 2014, the champ became the champ by winning the final race nine times. Ross Chastain broke the nine-race streak just last year.
So pick any of those bottom three and hope for the best. It’s not the worst wager out there, by far. In fact, at those inflated paydays, it’s worth a kick of the tires.
— Email Ken Willis at ken.willis@news-jrnl.com