UFC keeps the action on international soil this Saturday with a return to Canada for UFC Edmonton. There’s a lot to like sprinkled throughout the event at the Rogers Place, but the flyweights keep getting their rightful spotlight. Former two-time UFC champion Brandon Moreno ends his brief hiatus to headline opposite his fellow top contender Amir Albazi in the evening’s main event. The pair were originally set to collide in UFC Mexico’s headliner this past February until Albazi suffered an injury.
In the co-main event, women’s flyweights set the table as divisional staple Erin Blanchfield looks to rebound off her first UFC loss when she battles former two-time strawweight champion Rose Namajunas.
Both are pivotal matchups with title implications hanging in the balance. Albazi arguably had his case before the original Moreno date but needs to regain momentum with no fights since June 2023. Moreno always feels a win or two away from a title shot thanks to his previous status and star power. If Albazi can get past him, 2025 should be his year to challenge whoever has the title in quarter one.
We also get to see Derrick Lewis do Derrick Lewis things, for better or worse. Let’s break it down.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
125lbs.: Brandon Moreno (-175) vs. Amir Albazi (+145)
2024 has provided MMA fans with several wild flyweight main events, and Moreno and Albazi can add another.
Albazi has his unequivocal toughest test yet in Moreno. The Iraq native got off to a hot 4-0 start in the UFC over unranked opposition before he was launched into a main event with the perennial top contender Kai Kara-France. Five rounds, first ranked opponent — Albazi passed that test by split decision, but it wasn’t easy. The MMA community largely felt Albazi actually should’ve lost (per MMA Decisions, a whopping 89.1 percent of 1001 fan votes at the time of publishing scored the fight for Kara-France). The most common score was 48-47 Kara-France. Among the 21 media scorecards, only two members scored the fight for Albazi.
The 16-month layoff Albazi had since then makes it hard to assess how he’ll look in this fight. We know he’s talented and has been a well-rounded finisher throughout his 18-fight career, winning only thrice by decision (nine submissions, five knockouts), an impressive rate at flyweight. The only problem is the competition level.
On the other side, we have the ever-resilient former titleholder Moreno, who embodies the Mexican fighting spirit better than anyone has in MMA history. Tougher than a $2 steak, Moreno has never been finished and is never out of a fight. His relentlessly versatile offense will present Albazi with countless problems on the feet, leaving the returning contender to lean on his strong wrestling game. However, Moreno is still dangerous there as he has great scramble ability and can threaten with submissions from any position.
Moreno is a battle-tested model of consistency. You know what you get every time out. If you can’t keep up, you’ll drown or have your liver kicked out of your body. We can ask Kara-France about that. Albazi will be in danger the longer the fight goes, and it likely will.
It’s hard not to love and adore Moreno inside and outside of the octagon. An Albazi win would be great for the division and the freshness of potential matchups, but I have to be realistic. There are still too many question marks. “The Assassin Baby” rebounds.
Pick: Moreno
125lbs.: Erin Blanchfield (-140) vs. Rose Namajunas (+115)
Erin Blanchfield has been one of my proudest MMA predictions in my 15-year fandom. From the moment she got into MMA, it was clear “Cold Blooded” would be an elite flyweight and future champion. Here we are six years later. The jury is still out on the latter, but she has plenty of time to achieve that goal and gets another good opportunity to shine against Rose Namajunas.
Former strawweight champion Namajunas has gone on a surprisingly active and resurgent run in her new 125-pound weight class. “Thug” admittedly hasn’t looked like her best self compared to when she reigned over the 115-pound division twice, but back-to-back efforts over Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez proved she still has something to offer as a seasoned 32-year-old.
Against Cortez, Namajunas took the flyweight hopeful to school in a way. It was Cortez’s first main event and biggest challenge yet, and despite being the superior wrestler on paper, she found herself consistently outwrestled. Namajunas has always been a relatively capable grappler, especially from a submission standpoint. She tightened her offensive and defensive wrestling in this recent stage but will always be known for her clean and technical striking. However, Namajunas’ speed has decreased at 125 pounds, which could provide Blanchfield with better hopes after a tough effort against Manon Fiorot.
Unfortunately for Blanchfield, Fiorot exposed that there aren’t any secrets left in her game, at least for now. She’s a supremely talented and dangerous grappler capable of submitting anyone. Still just 25, Blanchfield has plenty of room to grow and improve her striking, which looked on the right track until Fiorot danced circles for most of their clash.
Until multiple pitfalls come Blanchfield’s way, I’m riding with her and believe her size and grappling advantages over Namajunas will be enough. The motivation to rebound off her first UFC loss against a former champion only adds to the intrigue of this matchup.
Pick: Blanchfield
265lbs.: Derrick Lewis (+135) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-165)
Alright. I’m not going to sugarcoat anything for you guys here. Derrick Lewis doesn’t make much sense anymore, if he ever did.
“The Black Beast” isn’t and hasn’t ever been the most talented heavyweight, but he hits like an absolute cannonball with dynamite inside it. Yeah, an exploding cannonball. We’ll go with that.
Lewis, 39, is the full definition of a gatekeeper now. He loses to those that he’s supposed to, which are ranked contenders. As a result, the UFC has tended to start feeding him rising prospects, like this matchup with Jhonata Diniz. However, that’s when Lewis does his Lewis things and hits a fool with a flying knee in the first minute. Sorry, Marcos Rogerio de Lima. I still will never get over that.
Diniz should probably win but he won’t … because Derrick Lewis. He’ll win with something stupid or after getting beat up for a round or two. Classic “Black Beast,” man.
Pick: Lewis
205lbs.: Caio Machado (-150) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+125)
This is a tough one, folks. We have a battle between two fine gentlemen riding two-fight losing streaks who have yet to win in the UFC. It’s likely a “loser leaves town” fight.
What do I always say? Back-against-the-wall matchups can bring out the best, so we could be in for a treat with Caio Machado vs. Brendson Ribeiro. The most intriguing element of this matchup is that it will be Machado’s debut at light heavyweight.
The former heavyweight prospect, unfortunately, found himself on the wrong end of consecutive unanimous decision losses to Don’Tale Mayers and Mick Parkin. They were lackluster efforts all around against lower-tier competition that proved Machado was probably signed prematurely off Contender Series last year. Maybe he’ll turn a new leaf at light heavyweight, but based on their losing streaks and who they were against, Ribeiro at least was competitive in his majority decision loss to the undefeated Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in his last fight.
I wouldn’t touch this fight with a 10-foot poll from a betting perspective. Assuming this fight hits the ground, we’ll see some fun grappling exchanges that ultimately get edged out by Ribeiro en route to a win whether by decision or submission.
Pick: Ribeiro
185lbs.: Marc-Andre Barriault (-200) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+165)
“Power Bar” in Canada is always a fun combination.
Like the last fight, this one is crucial for both men’s job status. Marc-Andre Barriault looks to snap a two-fight skid, while Dustin Stoltzfus is 2-5 in his last seven — his whole UFC career — with four of those losses ending in highlight-reel finishes. He’s been hit by some absurdly devastating shots in his last two losses, knockouts from Brunno Ferreira and Abus Magomedov.
Barriault has been notoriously durable throughout his career and only lost via strikes to the volatile clubbers Joe Pyfer and Chidi Njoukuani. Stoltzfus isn’t exactly that and has only seen his chin deteriorate in recent years. As long as he minds his Ps and Qs, Barriault won’t have much trouble landing the sleeper to wake his Canadian crowd.
Pick: Barriault
170lbs.: Mike Mallott (-350) vs. Trevin Giles (+260)
This is a potential trap matchup for Mike Mallott. Trevin Giles started strong when he dropped from middleweight in 2022 to beat Louis Cosce and Preston Parsons. However, Carlo Prates and Gabriel Bonfim were less than kind to him in his last two outings, knocking out and submitting him, respectively.
Mallott’s fight against the “GOATkeeper” Neil Magny — as our esteemed Shaheen Al-Shatti beautifully crowned him — feels like ages ago, but it was this year. January, to be exact, and Mallott came up short after a strong start against the record-holder for most UFC welterweight wins. Mallott, 32, succumbed to a late comeback TKO opposite Magny and the UFC clearly lost some faith in “Proper” by setting him up for a likely rebound against Giles.
Canada’s own is a kill-or-be-killed competitor with zero decisions on his résumé and a healthy blend of six submission wins to four knockouts. Giles will have his hands full wherever the fight goes but will have his best hopes by smothering his Canadian counterpart, eliminating any space to breathe.
Expect the motivated Mallott to defend well and tire Giles with heavy offensive strikes before submitting him on the mat.
Pick: Mallott
Preliminary notes
These prelims are great and any of the last four fights should replace the opening three on the main card. I’ll never understand the UFC’s ludicrous card placement since it went to ESPN.
Pedro Munhoz’s time as a bantamweight contender appears to be over after his last two fights, and another bright riser in Aiemann Zahabi will put that to the test. It’s an excellent matchup worthy of your time, and so is Ariane da Silva (formerly Lipski) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius. After her loss to Karine Silva, da Silva is back to being written off as if her great improvements during her three-fight winning streak didn’t happen. The Jasudavicius fight should be highly competitive and could score Fight of the Night, but the odds surprise me.
Charles Jourdain debuts at bantamweight against good old wildman Victor Henry, Jack Shore tries to get back on track, UFC Edmonton starts strong then hits some lulls to start the main card before our main-and-co-main-course meals.
Quick picks:
Aiemann Zahabi (-150) def. Pedro Munhoz (+125)
Ariane da Silva (+185) def. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-225)
Victor Henry (+115) def. Charles Jourdain (-140)
Jack Shore (+260) def. Youssef Zalal (-350)
Alexander Romanov (-110) def. Rodrigo Nascimento (-110)
Garrett Armfield (+110) def. Serhiy Sidey (-135)
Chad Anheliger (+175) def. Cody Gibson (-210)
Ivana Petrović (+185) def. Jamey-Lyn Horth (-225)
