Oct. 24—Two weeks ago, I asked where the big, bad SEC was. I still am curious how people thought this conference would swallow up Oklahoma and Texas.
OU has two ugly losses, one to Texas and the other to South Carolina in a game where the Sooners’ offense played its worst, and was missing all of its receivers. Literally, every receiver that was on the starting lineup to start the year has been out.
With that said, Georgia reminded us that it’s still a big-time team that can win big games. After the 30-15 win over UT last week, I believe that loss to Alabama was a fluke in late September.
Alabama could stick around for the SEC race but with a tough road schedule ahead, I think the Crimson Tide are out.
Vanderbilt isn’t even good. I still won’t buy into it being an improved team. We’ll look up in December and this team will have at least five losses, probably six.
Missouri has a couple tough ones right around the corner and I think it will drop at least one if not both to Alabama and OU. The Tigers won’t be able to stick around with just one loss in conference play.
Same with the Volunteers of Tennessee. They drop at least one more game this year.
Georgia and Texas should win out and finish with just one loss.
Now, the undefeated teams in SEC play of Texas A&M and LSU have the advantage right now. Ironically, they play each other on Saturday, too. The winner is in the hunt. The loser will end up falling out of the race.
The Aggies have another tough one at South Carolina and then the last game of the year is home against Texas. LSU gets two tough home games with Alabama next week and OU to end the year.
If the Sooners are healthy, they’ll be much different on Nov. 30 than they were last week against South Carolina.
My updated guess is for Texas, Georgia and LSU to all finish with one loss.
Here’s the Week 9 slate:
FRIDAY
No. 17 Boise State (5-1) at UNLV (6-1): UNLV has scored 30 or more points in five of seven games this year. The Broncos have allowed 30 or more in half their games this year. I think the Boise State defense has a bad night and there won’t be enough Ashton Jeanty can do to save the game. UPSET.
SATURDAY (11 a.m. games)
No. 4 Ohio State (5-1) vs. Nebraska (5-2): The Cornhuskers aren’t as bad as that showing last week would say they are. But Ohio State is also better than Indiana. Just a tough two-week draw for Nebraska. Buckeyes win. LOCK PICK.
No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2) vs. Oklahoma (4-3): This is another upset. I’m just not as confident here. OU let the offensive coordinator go and that was smart. The top wide receiver Deion Brooks might return. Sooners will shock the Rebels. Head coach Lane Kiffin even said it may be tough to prepare for a team with so many changes right now.
No. 12 Notre Dame (6-1) at No. 24 Navy (6-0): Navy is a solid team. And that Army-Navy game at the end of the year will be fun. But the Midshipmen allowed 44 points to Memphis earlier this year and won’t be able to stop Notre Dame. Fighting Irish win.
No. 13 Indiana (7-0) vs. Washington (4-3): The Hoosiers are on fire and I don’t see them losing here. The Huskies might test them early but won’t be able to score with them all game.
AFTERNOON GAMES (2:30-3:15 p.m. start times)
No. 20 Illinois (6-1) at No. 1 Oregon (7-0): I’m just as confident in Oregon to beat this ranked opponent as I am for ND to beat Navy. Ducks should have no trouble.
No. 11 Brigham Young (7-0) at Central Florida (3-4): The Cougars keep winning. UCF will play them tough but BYU stays undefeated.
No. 21 Missouri (6-1) at No. 15 Alabama (5-2): I’m not as confident in this ranked-versus-ranked matchup but still confident enough. The Crimson Tide win. That 30-point loss to Texas A&M changed my whole mindset about this Mizzou team. Then it barely beats Auburn. Roll tide.
No. 5 Texas (6-1) at No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-2): Talk about being confident in a pick. Texas shows just how not-so-deep this SEC conference is with a blowout here. The Longhorns are currently favored by 18.5. I’ll say they win by at least 21.
EVENING GAMES (6-7 p.m. start times)
No. 6 Miami (7-0) vs. Florida State (1-6): Florida State is not good. Cam Ward, Miami’s quarterback, should win the Heisman Trophy. That tells you enough.
No. 3 Penn State (6-0) at Wisconsin (5-2): The Badgers are a solid group and may turn this into a defensive grind. I still like Penn State to find a way to win.
No. 8 LSU (6-1) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1): Both teams lost in nonconference play. A win here is huge for an advantage inside the SEC. Let’s look at best wins. The Tigers beat Ole Miss. The Aggies have beaten Missouri. LSU has the best win and wins here. BIG GAME.
No. 16 Kansas State (6-1) vs. Kansas (2-5): It’s an in-state rivalry. KU will come to play. But there won’t be enough magic to pull off the upset.
No. 22 SMU (6-1) at Duke (6-1): The record makes the Blue Devils seem good. But they’re sneaky and deceiving. Duke’s beaten a lot of bad teams by just a few points. SMU hangs 35 or more and wins by 14 or more.
RECORDS
Overall: 116-33; Big game: 2-6; Upset: 2-6; Lock pick: 7-1.
