We are past the midway point in the 2024 regular season, and the playoff race is starting to take shape in front of us. More than that, though, we are starting to get a good idea who who has a chance to make it to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game at the start of December.
With five weeks left to go in the regular season, there are three teams in the conference with an undefeated record: No. 1 Oregon Ducks, No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions, and No. 13 Indiana Hoosiers.
Those three teams, along with a handful of others, all have a good chance to make it to Indy and compete for an automatic spot in the College Football Playoff. Let’s look to the ESPN Football Power Index to see how the odds break down for each team in the conference to take home the league title this year.
The Favorites
Ohio State Buckeyes: 33.6%
Oregon Ducks: 31.6%
It would be fitting for the Ducks and Buckeyes to meet for a rematch in Indianapolis, wouldn’t it? After the thrilling 32-31 Oregon victory in Eugene earlier this year, it feels like these are the two best teams in the conference, and a Part 2 would be one of the most anticipated games of the year.
With Oregon undefeated, they could suffer one loss and likely still make it to the conference title game, assuming both Indiana and Penn State don’t go lossless from here on out. Ohio State, though, likely needs to win out in order to get to Indy, which isn’t a guarantee with both Penn State, Indiana, and Michigan remaining on the schedule.
The Party Crashers
Penn State Nittany Lions: 17.2%
Indiana Hoosiers: 16.2%
Both No. 3 Penn State and Indiana are undefeated this year, and they seemingly have as good of a shot as anyone to make it to the conference title game at the year’s end. However, ESPN’s FPI doesn’t appear to be too confident that they can win every remaining game on their schedule going forward.
Of these two teams, I would say the Nittany Lions have the best chance, with Ohio State being the toughest game remaining on their schedule. Aside from the Buckeyes, Penn State plays, Wisconsin, Washington, Purdue, Minnesota, and Maryland, all of which are games that they will be favored in. The game against Ohio State on November 2 may very well be a play-in for Indy.
Indiana, on the other hand, has a little bit of a tougher road, but still very manageable going forward. They play Ohio State in Week 13, and could be playing for a spot in Indy. Other than the Buckeyes, the Hoosiers should be favored in every game, facing Washington, Michigan State, Michigan, and Purdue.
The Long Shots
Dylan Widger-Imagn Images
Wisconsin Badgers: 0.9%
Illinois Fighting Illini: 0.2%
Michigan Wolverines: 0.2%
Iowa Hawkeyes: 0.1%
Minnesota Golden Gophers: 0.1%
At this point, all of the teams in this tier already have two conference losses but Wisconsin, which helps explain the low probability of winning the conference, per the FPI. It seems more likely than not that the conference representatives in Indianapolis will have one loss, at the most, so any of these teams would need to run the table against some pretty good teams going forward, and even that may not be enough, ultimately.
The No Shots
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USC Trojans: 0.0%
UCLA Bruins: 0.0%
Washington Huskies: 0.0%
Northwestern Wildcats: 0.0%
Maryland Terrapins: 0.0%
Nebraska Cornhuskers: 0.0%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights: 0.0%
Michigan State Spartans: 0.0%
Purdue Boilermakers: 0.0%
Every team in this tier has 2-3 conference losses already, and has shown a likelihood of picking up more. We already talked about how unlikely it would be for the tier above this to run the table and get to the conference title game, and that goes double for the teams in this tier. It feels notable to mention that three of the four former Pac-12 teams — USC, UCLA, and Washington — are all basically out of the conference race, already.
