If Las Vegas wasn’t truly the world’s fight capital before 2020, it became that and then some thanks to the UFC’s use of its APEX Facility amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Four years later, we’re on the cusp of 100 Fight Night events in the building, with UFC Vegas 99 taking place this weekend.
Sometimes “temporary” really is forever.
Not every one of these cards is loaded top to bottom with must-see action. It’s generally quite the opposite, to be honest. However, the main event of UFC Vegas 99 is still a fun one as the surging Brazilian super-showman Michel Pereira lands his first UFC headliner. Opposing Pereira is another first-time main-eventer, Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez. Both have put on a show in every performance of their recent stretches, but only one can continue to ascend the middleweight contender pecking order.
The APEX events have exceeded their expiration date. Despite that, the UFC will keep them around for as long as it can no matter how often UFC CEO Dana White claims the promotion will get back on the road at the same frequency pre-2020. All we can do now is enjoy them as best we can.
Who we got, folks?
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
185lbs.: Anthony Hernandez (-135) vs. Michel Pereira (+110)
Sometimes we get one of those matchups where a decision is completely out of possibility. The MMA gods were kind enough to bless us with exactly that atop UFC Vegas 99.
It doesn’t really matter what precedes this fight because Hernandez vs. Pereira is a glorious main event worth your attention. Both men have earned this opportunity and the winner can expect an even bigger fight with a win. They’re both on lengthy winning streaks, Hernandez at five straight and Pereira at eight.
A formerly monstrous welterweight, Pereira has been on a Tom Aspinall-esque speedrun through middleweight since moving up three fights ago. The sizzling striker has put away each opponent in 66 seconds or less, starting with a TKO of Andre Petroski followed by submissions of Michal Oleksiejczuk and Ihor Potieria. The latter two came after Pereira landed thumping shots on the feet. “Demolodor” is dangerous everywhere with a toolbox unlike any other, especially when his prey is wounded. Surprisingly, the flashy 31-year-old will enter the fight as the betting underdog.
Hernandez, 30, has quickly become one of the most underrated and dangerous grapplers at 185 pounds, and fans realized that in his huge upset of Rodolfo Vieira. The February 2021 win kicked off Hernandez’s current hot streak when he submitted the legendary BJJ black belt with a second-round guillotine. Of his five recent victories, Hernandez finished four, mixing a knockout of Edmen Shahbazyan with a trio of submissions.
Although Pereira has had a significantly longer career than Hernandez, his competition level has been lower — at middleweight, particularly.
If there has been a glaring weakness of Pereira’s, it’s been his cardio. For the most part, it’s all gas and no breaks, and if the finish doesn’t come, Pereira likely has his work cut out for him. That hasn’t been tested yet at middleweight in the UFC, but with two extra rounds, a stylistically tricky and durable opponent in the betting favorite “Fluffy” will cause trouble for Pereira.
Expect a middle-round submission for Hernandez after he weathers a chaotic first round.
Pick: Hernandez
135lbs.: Rob Font (+375) vs. Kyler Phillips (-500)
Not all divisions are created equally. At bantamweight, mismatches or layups don’t exist, and even though Rob Font will take a step down in competition, Kyler Phillips is nowhere near an easy fight. Hence the oddsmakers favoring the latter at a whopping -500 moneyline to Font’s +375.
Font, 37, has been a perennial contender at 135 pounds, but father time and the division’s talent growth has appeared to have caught up with him. The New England Cartel product is 1-4 in his last five with all losses coming against elite-level opposition. There’s no shame in losing to former champions like Jose Aldo and Deiveson Figueiredo, or one-time title challengers like Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera. Between the losses, Font managed to fend off bright prospect Adrian Yanez with a first-round knockout.
Unfortunately for Font, Phillips has a strong overall game to accompany his youth. Outside of a majority decision loss to Raulian Paiva in 2021, Phillips has been flawless in the Octagon, earning a well-aged win over Song Yadong and most recently a masterclass against Pedro Munhoz.
Font is a slick and sharp boxer, admittedly one of the better in the division. However, Phillips’ fight IQ and overall approach will likely be too much. Font can expect to get his legs chopped with punches behind them and eventual takedowns. Between both, they’ve only been finished once — a Munhoz guillotine loss for Font in 2017.
Ultimately, the new guard at bantamweight is taking over.
Pick: Phillips
125lbs.: Charles Johnson (-250) vs. Su Madaerji (+195)
Charles Johnson thinks he’s the flyweight version of Andrei Arlovski with his recent turnaround.
Once on the cusp of losing his spot on the UFC roster, Johnson snapped his three-fight losing skid and strung together the same amount of wins in 2024.
Yes, all in one year. I said we’re talking about speedruns, didn’t I?
The 33-year-old began banging on all cylinders when matched with prospects Azat Maksum and Jake Hadley, whom he defeated with unanimous decisions in February and May, respectively. In his most recent time out, a July clash against a bright possible future contender, Joshua Van, Johnson scored a third-round knockout.
Momentum is real in any sport, ladies and gentlemen. Therefore, Su Madearji looks to have his work cut out as the +195 underdog to Johnson’s -250 favorite.
The Chinese combatant isn’t getting a fair shake from the oddsmakers here. Although he’s been considerably inactive with only one fight per year since 2018, Madaerji’s recent two losses were against one-time title challenger Tim Elliott and 125-pound mainstay Matt Schnell.
Listen. If you missed that Schnell fight at UFC Long Island in 2022, stop reading this and watch it right now. Stop everything. You will not be disappointed.
The Schnell fight was one of the most absurd things I’ve seen in all my years of watching combat. It was one of those fights that may have taken some years off both men’s lives, but until Madaerji’s chin is fully cracked, we should trust his toughness and ability to walk through fire.
In Madaerji’s career, he’s exclusively lost by submission, so the path to victory against him is as clear as Dana White’s love for Jon Jones. Meanwhile, Johnson has never been finished and isn’t much of a submission threat, preferring to enjoy his exchanges on the feet.
They’re meeting in the middle here in terms of their competition trajectory. It should be a close, fun affair for as long as it lasts, but Johnson’s durability should lead to him outlasting his opponent.
Pick: Johnson
135lbs.: Jake Hadley (-500) vs. Cameron Smotherman (+375)
Hadley was mentioned in that last fight’s prediction and he’s back for this matchup with Brady Hiestand. Actually, scratch that. Hadley’s original opponent withdrew on Tuesday, therefore, welcome in UFC newcomer, Cameron Smotherland.
Hadley’s victory over Caolan Loughran was a good return to the win column at UFC 304 in July. Against Smotherman, he’ll compete for the second straight time up at bantamweight after his flyweight run.
Smotherman, 27, obviously has all the odds against him in this short-notice affair. Incredibly, the 11-4 prospect arrived in Saudi Arabia to corner PFL’s Raufeon Stots for his fight this Saturday when he was found out he was getting the opportunity. Talk about one big turnaround.
Outside of his shot on Contender Series in 2023, Smotherman’s professional career has unfolded in Fury FC. “The Baby Faced Killer” has rarely gone to the judges’ scorecards, finishing six opponents by strikes and one by submission.
The two times that Smotherman has been finished, they were quick. Hadley has historically been a quick starter but it leads to wrestling breakdowns over time. Everything is on his side with the factors considered.
Pick: Hadley
145lbs.: Darren Elkins (-125) vs. Daniel Pineda (+105)
This fight isn’t about the fight. It’s about the same question we ask before every Darren Elkins fight: How much blood will escape his face?
Right when I believed Elkins was done and cooked after his Cub Swanson TKO loss in 2021, he continued to endure boatloads of damage — pun intended — in his three fights since. Elkins has won two of those three and finished the latter via a third-round rear-naked choke over TJ Brown. The man has to be killed twice to be truly ended in a fight.
Don’t get me wrong, Daniel Pineda has the chops to shut out Elkins’ lights. However, it’s too difficult to doubt a guy like Elkins, who has arguably embodied a zombie moniker better than any other zombie-nicknamed fighter ever has.
Pineda will convincingly win the striking in this fight, battering the awkward and stiff Elkins while he seeks grappling dominance and finds it. There will be blood. There will be grit. In the end, I believe more in Elkins’ durability and wrestling than Pineda’s ability to defend it or break “The Damage.”
Pick: Elkins
125lbs.: Matheus Nicolau (+185) vs. Assu Almabayev (-225)
Momentum has been mentioned a couple of times regarding this card. Assu Almabayev may have more than anyone else, having not lost in 14 fights.
Matheus Nicolau will look to regain his own lost momentum after suffering back-to-back knockout losses against Brandon Royval and Alex Perez. Going from a main event matchup to the main card opener against the No. 14-ranked guy has to be some extra motivation.
Stylistically, these two can make for a thrilling grappling affair, as they’re both excellent on the ground. Nicolau’s lone losses came via strikes and Almabayev only has three in his career.
This is another case of the competition level being largely in favor of someone, and that’s Nicolau here. That’s not to say Almabayev hasn’t fought good names on his run. His most notable wins include the likes of former Bellator champion and UFC contender Zach Makovsky, along with CJ Vergara, Jose Johnson, and Ode Osbourne. The timing here for Almabayev and his strong skill set could very well supersede the longtime contender.
When we get to the outcome, I see a split decision result written all over it.
We’re going to go against the momentum this time, though. A man with his back against the wall can be a dangerous one. Nicolau rebounds in a hard-fought and technical flyweight showcase.
Pick: Nicolau
Preliminary notes
Never underestimate Jessica Penne’s ability to upset — and submit — a strawweight trying to break through. As one of the most entertaining grapplers in the division’s history, she’ll always be a must-watch for me.
A Robelis Despaigne rebound attempt is also enticing, and the lead-in to the main card is a good one between Jean Matsumoto and Brad Katona.
Quick Picks:
135lbs.: Jean Matsumoto (-225) def. Brad Katona (+185)
135lbs.: Joselyne Edwards (-250) def. Tamires Vidal (+200)
115lbs.: Jessica Penne (+155) def. Elise Reed (-195)
155lbs.: Melissa Martinez (-135) def. Alice Ardelean (+110)
265lbs.: Robelis Despaigne (-350) def. Austen Lane (+260)
