A “soap opera.” That’s how Brad Keselowski described the state of NASCAR as the sanctioning body faces a federal antitrust lawsuit brought against it by NBA legend (and NASCAR team owner) Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports. And, oh by the way, against the backdrop of billable hours racked up by attorneys and the specter of NASCAR as we know it possibly dramatically changing, the championship playoffs happen to be underway, featuring a semifinal field that is ridiculously stacked.
With all this going on, let’s get right to your questions before something else happens.
What does NASCAR look like in five years? — Steve F.
Any answer is dependent on the outcome of the lawsuit filed by 23XI and Front Row. If NASCAR prevails, then the likelihood is that the sport isn’t all that different than it is today. The expectation is that much of the schedule will look similar while NASCAR’s push to expand into untapped markets will lead to additional international races in locales such as Mexico, Canada and maybe even South America.
Five years from now, NASCAR will also be nearing the completion of the media rights deal that it signed last fall with Fox, NBC, Warner Bros. Discovery and Amazon, and the Next Gen car will be in its eighth year of competition. This means NASCAR will be beginning the process to identify what its next media rights deal might look like — and who knows what the state of television/streaming will be — and based on past precedent, NASCAR leadership will either have already begun or soon will develop the design of its next car.
And on the subject of leadership, who is heading NASCAR at this time? Is that current chairman and CEO Jim France, who’s presently 79, France’s nephew and high-ranking executive Ben Kennedy, who’s on the path to be his uncle’s successor, or someone else entirely? Any leadership change beyond France would be notable, potentially opening the door for the sport to head in a completely different direction.
As for what transpires if 23XI and Front Row are successful in suing NASCAR is anyone’s guess at this point because we don’t know how this lawsuit will unfold. Would a settlement be the catalyst for the France family to sell its ownership stake to an entity outside the family? Would teams gain more control or even an ownership stake themselves, like something along the lines of the old CART series? Would NASCAR be forced to pay teams a sizable sum?
Just about anything feels like it’s on the table.
Do you think 23XI and Front Row Motorsports can still make the playoffs or be eligible to make the playoffs if they get their charters taken? — Quinn M.
Yes, 23XI and Front Row would be eligible to earn a playoff spot even if they choose to run as an “open” entry. The eligibility doesn’t change regardless of whether they have a charter or not, though the payout they would receive does lessen significantly. And this would be something to watch going forward.
All things being equal, both 23XI and Front Row have proven to be playoff-caliber organizations. But without charters, neither would be operating on the same playing field as other charter teams. Money equals speed, and by losing millions of dollars in revenue, the respective owners of 23XI and Front Row would need to be willing to cover the financial shortfall themselves to maintain their performance or risk sliding backwards.
Could 23XI and Front Row overcome this disadvantage? No doubt. It just won’t be easy or inexpensive.
Denny Hamlin, Michael Jordan and 23XI Racing have said they plan to run as an “open” team next year if their charter is revoked. (Chris Graythen / Getty Images)
Is the biggest card … or threat 23XI/Front Row have going for them in this lawsuit getting NASCAR to open their books in discovery and all of the contents being made public? They can’t want that to happen, right? — Travis T.
The threat of a judge ordering NASCAR to open its books is one reason why this lawsuit could get settled, according to some legal experts contacted by The Athletic. Especially if NASCAR has particular information it would prefer to keep private.
But it isn’t a sure thing that NASCAR is fearful of what’s unearthed during the discovery process. We truly don’t know because NASCAR has never publicly disclosed its financial records. This is among the many reasons why this case is so fascinating.
Do you see a situation where another premier stock car racing series is created due to the charter disagreements? Considering NASCAR’s relationship with the current schedule of track owners, what do you think a splinter series would look like and where might they race? — Mrock
If history has taught us anything, it’s that anything is possible. In fact, 23XI co-owner Curtis Polk stated in a court filing related to the ongoing lawsuit that in November 2022 he “tried to create support” among owners for an exhibition race held outside the United States as a way to pressure NASCAR to offer a fairer deal. That idea effectively died on the vine when the majority of team owners “were too afraid of angering NASCAR,” along with the cost of staging such a race.
Yet just because something could happen doesn’t necessarily mean it should, and this applies to forming another national stock car series to challenge NASCAR. Look at the open-wheel civil war between CART and the IRL to see how deconstructive rival leagues can be. That battle for control stunted what at the time was a thriving racing series that generated significant interest and had CART pushing NASCAR as the top form of motorsport in the U.S., and even had Formula One concerned about its potential to unseat it globally.
Indy car racing has never fully recovered, a lesson NASCAR team owners are surely aware of. It’s reason to be skeptical that a second stock car series would actually be successful and not potentially harmful to all involved.
Which tracks a rival league would race on is also tricky to navigate. Assuming NASCAR maintains operating control of the 12 tracks within Speedway Motorsports — which owns high-profile venues such as Bristol, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Sonoma and Texas — and Roger Penske-owned Indianapolis Motor Speedway plus other independently owned tracks all stay aligned with NASCAR, any league would then have to turn its attention primarily to grassroots-level short tracks. While these types of small ovals may produce great racing, they also lack modern amenities and ample seating.
Taking everything into account, any potential rival league sounds like a spruced-up version of SRX, only with more overhead and potentially little in the way of star power, all in a sports media climate where companies are looking to spend only on select name-brand properties.
Again, not impossible for a proposed series to overcome these hurdles, but it’s definitely challenging.
Could the charter disagreement get contentious enough to spawn a rival league? Unlikely, with all the challenges such an endeavor would face. (Meg Oliphant / Getty Images)
With the recent growth of certain drivers straight from the CARS Tour into the Xfinity Series (mostly bypassing Trucks), is the CARS Tour becoming more important in the driver pipeline than ARCA or even Trucks? — Phillip B.
Not more important — at least at the moment — as the Truck Series and ARCA remain key tenets in NASCAR’s pipeline to driver development. But what the emergence of Josh Berry followed by Carson Kvapil from the CARS Tour does signal is that the opportunity to advance from the Late Model ranks remains feasible.
Not too long ago, when teams scouted young drivers, they didn’t necessarily pay much attention to what was happening in series like the CARS Tour or other asphalt-based Late Model series. The preference of many teams then was to instead comb the dirt sprint-car ranks in the hopes of landing the next Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, etc. A driver could still advance from Late Models to NASCAR’s national level — Erik Jones is one such example, and there are plenty of others — but it certainly wasn’t like it used to be “back in the day” when a driver would hone their skills in Late Models then advance upward should they prove deserving.
Of course, having the necessary funding is often pivotal to a driver getting a shot to land a quality seat with a NASCAR team, at any level. It’s why Josh Berry didn’t advance sooner and why Kvapil wasn’t assured of getting a full-time promotion to Xfinity next year even though he’s deserving. Hopefully, as the team business model continues to evolve with the intent of becoming less dependent on outside sponsorship, a driver’s talent becomes the overriding factor of whether they get a plum ride.
NASCAR has been experimenting much more with new markets the last few years, which is great. The only problem is that when we enter these markets like Chicago and Mexico, there aren’t ovals where they can really showcase what quintessential NASCAR racing really is. Even the markets that are being rumored will end up just hosting street races. Do you think NASCAR ever builds a new oval, or will just say it’s too expensive even though it might be the best in the long-term. — Matt L.
A fair question, and one that has been brought up frequently within the industry as NASCAR continues to expand, in part, by adding road/street courses that don’t always highlight the sport at its best. The rub, however, is that in many instances NASCAR is limited on the type of track it could utilize, so it either doesn’t race in markets like downtown Chicago or Mexico City, or it does so on a street/road course.
Ideally, NASCAR would either build or refurbish an oval track in or nearby major population centers. Except that the cost to do so is significantly high — exactly why the rebuilding of California Speedway in Fontana is on hold — city leaders have yet to get fully onboard like in Nashville with the Fairgrounds short track, or there is no realistic avenue to do so.
The one exception to this, of course, is constructing a purpose-built oval inside a massive stadium. NASCAR did just this when it raced inside the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. With how successful it was, the hope is that NASCAR can incorporate this idea in other markets within North America, and maybe even the world.
But this type of approach is expensive, necessitating that there must be a sizable return on investment for NASCAR to continue racing in stadiums. And as the Clash at the Coliseum demonstrated, there appears to be a shelf life on that return with each successive year.
How NASCAR navigates expansion while also ensuring its product is best showcased is a delicate balance. At the moment, though, the best way to race in new markets is usually through adding a street/road course with the understanding that the schedule should only have a select amount of those tracks on its schedule each year.
GO DEEPER
NASCAR Charlotte Roval takeaways: Alex Bowman’s DQ and a case for the oval
(Top photo of Michael Jordan: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
