Thirty-two races down, four to go, and we’ll have a 2024 NASCAR Cup Series champ.
And guess what. It won’t be a complete shocker.
A few longshots made the playoffs and then made some noise once there, but none of them advanced to the Round of 8 following Sunday’s road-course race at the Charlotte Roval.
Well, unless you want to count a guy who didn’t race into the Round of 8 yet finds himself there anyway. Huh? We’ll explain, but let’s just say you can’t call a two-time Cup champ a longshot.
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After Kyle Larson’s sixth win of the season, prepare for Vegas and the know-it-alls to lean heavily his way as the favorite to win his second Cup title.
Can’t blame ’em, but they should slow their short-term roll.
I’ll explain that, too.
First Gear: Alex Bowman DQ
Let’s start with Joey Logano, who survives because Alex Bowman’s No. 48 Chevy shed too much weight during the Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte.
How’s that happen? You make weight before the race but not after? Do cars sweat?
In older days, crew chiefs would arrange for their cars to shed weight during a race, in order to increase speed (for those of you short on physics knowledge). But they run a tighter ship these days, and the scale must be visited and satisfied after the race.
There was a lot of video evidence floating around showing Bowman practically launching his Chevy after running into the curb exiting the Roval’s chicane near the frontstretch.
Not the rumble strips, which received so much criticism, but the curb that housed the rumble strips! Tough break if that’s what happened, but here’s a suggestion: Don’t run over curbs. The boys at Tire Kingdom might encourage it, for the sake of business, but your lower lumbar, molars and championship hopes say otherwise.
Second Gear: Beware of Kyle Larson after a win
Remember a few weeks back when Kyle Larson dominated Bristol and you were warned about assuming his momentum would carry over to Kansas the next week?
Well, here we go again. This time, we have one more piece of data to serve up as evidence. Two weeks ago, you were reminded of Kyle’s finishes the week after wins this season: 14th, 34th, 34th, 7th. And after winning Bristol, he went to Kansas and finished 26th. Even the best racers can’t avoid circumstances here and there, but in this case, you also can’t avoid that trend.
So, you might ask, if you’re the type to throw down a buck or two at the betting window, should you abide by the evidence and avoid Kyle at Vegas?
Depends. Do you put more stock in the above trend or in Kyle’s recent Vegas record: Five finishes of second or better, including three wins, in his last seven starts there.
Third Gear: Michael Jordan still hangin’ as Tyler Reddick rallies and ruffles
While the legal teams are looking at 23XI Racing for other reasons, Sunday’s onlookers had to be impressed with Tyler Reddick’s mad dash into the playoffs. He took fresh tires with 27 laps left, then rallied from 26th to 11th at the checkers to snag the final Round of 8 ticket.
Except, of course, that final berth went to Logano after Bowman blew the weigh-in.
It wasn’t without some bull-in-a-china-shop tactics. Reddick tossed a decent hip-check into Daniel Hemric through a hairpin turn. Hemric was fine with it afterward, probably because he knows the situation and has probably learned a long-held racin’ truism: You can’t win a championship without rattling a cage or two along the way.
With Reddick advancing, expect the team to continue to save a pit-box seat for co-owner Michael Jordan, who has practically become a regular in recent weeks. He certainly won’t pass up a legitimate reason to visit Vegas, you wouldn’t think.
Fourth Gear: Updated NASCAR playoff standings
Let’s take a look at the updated playoff pecking order entering Las Vegas.
Remember, after the Round of 8 concludes at Martinsville in three weeks, the top four go to the Phoenix finale (phinale?) with a chance to win the Cup Championship. And no one takes a points advantage to the championship race.
And you’re reading that right, Larson goes to Las Vegas with some serious house money — a 33-point cushion over fifth place.
- Kyle Larson (+33)
- Christopher Bell (+13)
- Tyler Reddick (+10)
- William Byron (+4)
- Ryan Blaney (-4)
- Denny Hamlin (-8)
- Chase Elliott (-9)
- Joey Logano (-11)
In terms of best average finishes at Vegas over the past three-plus seasons (seven races), seven of the above racers are among the best 11. The outlier: Christopher Bell. Something has to give, because since crashing at Michigan two months ago, he’s been on a lead-pack heater — seven finishes of seventh or better in eight starts.
— Reach Ken Willis at ken.wilis@news-jrnl.com
