Wisconsin improved to 4-2 on the 2024 season and 2-1 in Big Ten play with a dominant 42-7 win over Rutgers on Saturday.
The Badgers now ride a two-game winning streak with wins by a combined margin of 94-13. That hot streak has greatly improved the team’s standing after it started the season 2-2 and 0-1 in Big Ten play. The resurgence also has the group on a steady climb in ESPN’s FPI and SP+ metrics — creating a rest-of-season outlook that looks brighter by the week.
This win streak is no fluke. The Badgers appear to have significantly improved in several key areas. One big driving factor: Luke Fickell’s group has finally built a clear identity. That includes dominating up front on offense, running the ball with Tawee Walker, connecting on explosive plays to WRs Vinny Anthony and Trech Kekahuna, and playing strong, sound, penalty-free defense.
Wisconsin’s on-field improvement has bowl eligibility now looking like a near certainty — an important status as Fickell works to build the program in his second year in charge. Notably, the improvement has also opened the possibility of a program-defining upset win over Penn State or Oregon when they visit Madison, Wisconsin later this fall.
Thanks to Oregon’s win over Ohio State on Saturday, that pair of potential upsets make it so Wisconsin controls its own destiny to make the Big Ten title game.*
*(Note: the tiebreakers become extremely confusing with half of the conference at either 3-0 or 2-1. This is the extent to how far into the different scenarios I’ve gotten. The declarative statement is that the Badgers ‘might’ control their own destiny to make the conference title game)
Current Big Ten Standings:
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Indiana (3-0), Oregon (3-0), Penn State (3-0)
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Illinois (2-1), Ohio State (2-1), Nebraska (2-1), Iowa (2-1), Michigan (2-1), Wisconsin (2-1)
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Minnesota (2-2), Washington (2-2)
Here’s why Wisconsin would (probably) make the title game if it wins out:
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Wisconsin would close with wins over Northwestern, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon, Nebraska and Minnesota. That’s a 10-2 (8-1 Big Ten) record with the only conference loss coming to USC
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The Badgers would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Oregon and Penn State — that is again if they win both games
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Illinois lost to Penn State and Ohio State lost to Oregon, so Wisconsin would edge both teams in tiebreaker No. 2: record against common opponents (neither Illinois nor Ohio State plays USC)
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Wisconsin would have head-to-head wins over both Nebraska and Iowa, eliminating them from contention
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Michigan could win out and edge Wisconsin with a better record against common opponents (it beat USC earlier this year). That is where things get extremely complicated, as Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana could all be tied at 8-1
These things will work themselves out. Michigan is extremely unlikely to run the table with remaining games against No. 22 Illinois, No. 2 Oregon, No. 16 Indiana and No. 4 Ohio State. But the chance of it winning all of those games would make the tiebreakers extreme to follow.
Obviously, this is a glass-3/4-full outlook on the rest of Wisconsin’s season. But the weekly look at the Big Ten West race used to see the Badgers alive until the closing weeks of the season. Football fandom is a lot more fun when it’s possible to map out possible paths to the championship game.
The Badgers are back on the field on Saturday at Northwestern as they look for their third-straight victory, and to continue to (possibly) control their destiny to win the Big Ten.
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