Non-Playoff Teams Could Sweep This Round Of NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs

It’s been 10 years since NASCAR implemented the current playoff format in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. It’s a format that features three elimination rounds of three races apiece culminating with a Championship Four.

Race victories have generally been claimed by teams in the Playoffs, but the past two race winners have been from drivers that didn’t make the 16-driver playoff field.

Ross Chastain drove to victory at Kansas Speedway on September 29 and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. won the crash-filled race at Talladega Superspeedway on October 6.

It’s the first time in the current format that two of the three races in a round are drivers who are out of the running for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

If a road course ace such as Kaulig Racing’s Shane van Gisbergen, who won the pole Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway, or defending winner AJ Allmendinger win on the Roval, non-Playoff drivers would sweep an entire round.

The Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is one of three elimination races in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. The first eliminator was the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway on September 14. That is when 12 of the 16 drivers advanced and four drivers were eliminated.

The second elimination round is Sunday at Charlotte Motor Speedway when the eight drivers advance into the Round of Eight and four more drivers are out of the running.

The final elimination round is the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway on November 3 when the round of eight becomes the “Championship Four” that will fight it out for the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Championship at Phoenix Raceway on November 10.

The champion will be the highest finishing driver out of the Championship Four. Until last year, the champion was also the winner of the race, but Ross Chastain of Trackhouse Racing won the race after he failed to advance into the Round of Eight.

A playoff driver that wins a race in each round advances into the next round. If there are three winners in the three-race round, all three advance and the remainder of the eligible drivers move into the next round based on points.

Chase Elliott of Hendrick Motorsports is currently the driver in eighth place with two-time NASCAR Cup Series Champion Joey Logano of Team Penske 13 points away from the cutline.

Daniel Suarez of Trackhouse is 10^th, Austin Cindric of Team Penske 11^thand Chase Briscoe of Stewart Haas Racing 12^th, 32 points from the cutline.

Briscoe realizes he has to win to stay in the Playoffs, that he can’t advance based on points.

“I think for us it’s honestly better that we’re kind of in the position that we are being 32 out or whatever it is versus 15 just because if you’re 15 to even 20, that is doable,” Briscoe said, referring to getting into the next round with points. “Where we’re 30, at least for us, we’re just looking at it as a must win.

“You could maybe point your way in, but a lot of things would have to go your way.

“I think it honestly opens up a lot for us from a strategy standpoint of just going in with the approach of flipping the track position and everything else.

“To be below the cut line is obviously unfortunate, but honestly, I would much rather it be 30-something points than 15 just because I think it makes it a little clearer of what you need to do from a strategy standpoint. And out of all the tracks in this round, this is the one where I feel the most confident to come and battle for the win, so hopefully we can do that.”

With the drivers who didn’t make the original 16-driver Playoff Field winning the last two races, it has actually helped several drivers in the Playoffs advance through points, instead of wins.

“I think it’s good if you’re around the cut line for sure just because if guys in the playoffs win it just moves that cut line farther and farther down,” Briscoe explained. “So, I think for the guys near the cut line, it definitely makes it a little bit easier, but for us where we’re at a point situation, it really doesn’t matter truthfully.

“I think it definitely makes a difference, you know the first round even right, if I don’t win the race, I’m cheering that a non-playoff guy win just because it makes it a lot easier.”

Briscoe believes pole winner Van Gisbergen, known as SVG, and Allmendinger could be the winner on the Roval at Charlotte Motor Speedway. That would add more intrigue and drama than if a playoff driver won and advanced.

“I think that here too, just with the strategy standpoint, it’s going to be flipped more than any of the oval races that we have,” Briscoe said. “So, it definitely would not surprise me at all to see a non-playoff guy win, but hopefully a playoff guy wins.”

William Byron of Hendrick Motorsports has already advanced into the next round because he enters the race the points leader. Mathematically, he is in, but the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet can compete in the race with little to lose.

The drivers that have won the past two weeks, and potentially on Sunday that aren’t part of the Playoffs are able to compete with nothing to lose.

“You can just be more aggressive if you’re not in the playoffs, typically,” Byron said. “If you’re in the playoffs, you’re counting points and you’re trying to get yourself in position.

“That all changes in the next round, slightly. But this round for sure, you’re just trying to get through these events.

“For us, it doesn’t matter. I think we’ll be in the group that’s like the non-playoff guys. it’s more aggressive. So, it’ll be nice to do that.”

One of Byron’s teammates at Hendrick Motorsports, Chase Elliott, is another driver who actually expects a driver like Van Gisbergen or Allmendinger to win the race.

“I think the odds of someone winning this not in the playoffs are fairly high with everything going on this weekend,” Elliott told me Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway. “Obviously, you have great road racers like SVG, but when you’re not worried about the points, and you’re not worried about the stage ends that really can set you up in a good spot for the next stage. So, I wouldn’t be surprised you know if you had the whole round go that way.”

Another driver at Hendrick Motorsports, 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Champion and 2024 Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year Kyle Larson gave a great explanation why the last two winners have come from outside the playoff field.

“I think in the Next Gen Era it’s not super unusual,” Larson told me. “I think we’ve seen lots of winners ever since we introduced this car, so it’s not surprising by any means.

“If you are going to win, you’d probably rather a non-playoff guy win anyways. There are no extra bonus points going out and such, so yeah, I hope I win, and I hope other playoff guys don’t.

“Unless it’s a teammate.”

Logano won NASCAR Cup Series Championships in 2017 and 2022. But his quest at a third Cup title is tenuous considering his position in the points.

Would a win by a driver not in the playoffs help or hinger Logano’s cause?

“It depends on who you are,” Logano told me. “If you are on the cut line, you’d rather not see that, right? It just depends on who you are and where you’re at what playoff guy wins it.”

The trendsetters are Chastain and Stenhouse, but to see them finish in Victory Lane should not be a shock. Stenhouse has two wins at Talladega Superspeedway, including October 6, and won the Daytona 500 in 2023.

Chastain is one of NASCAR’s most exciting drivers, especially after his “Hail Melon” last lap move at Martinsville Speedway in 2022 sent him cruising into the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.

Chastain didn’t win a race in the first 26 races of NASCAR’s regular season and that is why he didn’t make the playoffs. But he made sure he captured a win in 2024 with his victory at Kansas Speedway.

“I don’t think it’s unusual to see a non-Playoff driver win races in the playoffs,” Stenhouse told me Saturday at Charlotte Motor Speedway. “I think the sport is so competitive right now and the cars are so close it doesn’t take much for a non-playoff guy to win.

“Back in the day when we were all building our own cars and your stuff was totally different, anytime for us, when we weren’t in the playoffs, if we had good runs, top 10 runs, top 5 runs in the playoffs, you always felt good because you knew that everybody that was in the playoffs was bringing their best stuff that they had, that they’ve been working on all season to the racetrack.

“Here I feel like you know there’s really not much different stuff you can bring to the racetrack. We are all just so close.

“That trend can stay on in any given weekend. It’s all about, executing and putting yourself in the right position, good strategies, and having the breaks fall your way.

“I think any of us, if you put us on new tires and the caution come out and all of a sudden, you’re on the front row of this thing, there’s a lot of drivers that can win. And that’s at every given racetrack. I literally think you could see a ton of non-playoff guys win.

“It’s just a wild sport that we’re in right now with the way the strategy can play out.”