The Mets have the guts to win this scintillating series against the Phillies — or any matchup this October — of that there is no doubt as they continue to pull off inspiring late-inning comebacks on a daily basis.
They have the hitting, especially with Mark Vientos raging hot again, showing off his elite power under the bright lights of the postseason.
And they have enough quality starting pitchers, even if Luis Severino let a gem slip away with stunning swiftness due to killer mistake pitches in Game 2 on Sunday.
But do they have enough bullpen?
That has been a troubling question at various times this season — at least partly because Edwin Diaz has had such an up-and-down season — and never more so than right now.
It wasn’t just Diaz that cost the Mets in a wild, 7-6 loss to the Phillies in Game 2 of this NLDS at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, but he was certainly at the heart of it, allowing the Phillies to turn a 4-3 deficit into a 6-4 lead in the eighth inning against the heart of the lineup.
But no less problematic is the lack of rested, quality arms that Carlos Mendoza has at his disposal at the moment. Which is to say the bullpen is pretty much gassed from overuse the last couple of weeks, the result of the Mets needing to push so hard to lock up a wild card spot and then go right into the postseason.
On Sunday, for example, neither Phil Maton nor Ryne Stanek were available due to their recent workload.
And Jose Butto, coming off allowing two home runs in Game 3 of the Wild Card series, couldn’t get through the seventh inning, due to a hit-by-pitch and a single by No. 9 hitter Kory Clemens, which brought Kyle Schwarber up in a spot Mendoza felt he needed Diaz.
In addition, Maton’s reliability has slipped due to overuse, and Stanek has moved up the pecking order but he had a shaky ninth in Game 1. Reed Garrett worked two scoreless innings of his own in Game 1, but he’s had his missteps in recent weeks as well.
So throw all of that into the blender, the overuse and the inconsistencies, and that explains why Tylor Megill was called in to relieve Diaz in the eighth inning, in the highest of high-leverage spots, making only second relief appearance this season and seventh of his career.
Remember, the Mets tried him briefly as a reliever late in the 2022 season, and it didn’t go well. Going into Sunday, he had a 5.63 ERA as a reliever in his six appearances.
To his credit, he got out of the eighth and then got the first two outs in the ninth, beating Schwarber with a 97 mph fastball for a pop-out to Vientos. But then, finally, the moment looked a little too big for Megill as he walked Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, then hung a slider that Nick Castellanos lined to left for the walk-off hit.
Which brings up the question of whether the Mets should use David Peterson in the late innings down the road in this series.
With that in mind, let’s back up for a minute to that pivotal seventh inning.
Mendoza was right to bring in Diaz to face the Phillies’ big guns because that loomed as the key moment of the game.
However, if he had a fresher pen or if Butto was pitching the way he did earlier in the season, he might have managed things differently. What’s also glaring about all of this is the Mets’ absence of a lefty reliever the manager trusts in the late innings.
With that in mind, Peterson has the stuff and seemingly the moxie to get big outs out of the pen. Out of necessity he was used to close out the Wild Card series in Milwaukee, and it’s notable that he held left-handed hitters to a .219 batting average during the season.
He was used as the bulk-innings guy in relief of Kodai Senga in Game 1, partly because the Mets were worried that his relief appearance would compromise him as a starter. And indeed he struggled with his command, but also got big outs to escape trouble during a three-inning scoreless stint.
So now the next two games will be started by Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana, with Luis Severino looming on regular rest for a potential Game 5 start.
Perhaps the Mets can use Peterson as a late-inning weapon, if not in Game 3 then certainly in Game 4, and give Mendoza a much-needed lefty option.
In the end, though, what the Mets need most is for Diaz to be dominant again. He deserved huge credit for coming back in the ninth in Atlanta a week ago, but that was necessary only because he blew the lead in the eighth.
On Sunday he wasn’t sharp, clearly not trusting his fastball command to the point that he admitted he didn’t attack Harper, then wound up hanging a slider that Stott lined down the right-field line for a go-ahead triple.
Costly sliders have been a recurring theme this season that Diaz seemed to conquer in recent weeks, as he leaned more heavily on his fastball, so now you have to wonder if fatigue is part of the equation.
Diaz had two days off (though he did warm up in Game 1) but he’s had a heavy workload over the last week. Starting with last Sunday he threw 105 pitches in three appearances over five days, including that 40-pitch outing last Monday in Atlanta.
And though he was hitting 99 mph on the radar gun Sunday, pitching coaches will tell you fatigue is often reflected more in a lack of command than velocity.
In any case, the Mets have to hope the off-day before Game 3 — and potentially another before Game 5 — helps refresh Diaz.
On the other hand, it shouldn’t be forgotten that the Phillies have their own bullpen issues, as the Mets have beat up on their high-leverage relievers in the first two games of the series.
All of which makes for great intrigue, grand theater, and the likelihood of a fascinating conclusion to this series, especially the way the Mets are rising to the occasion in the late innings.
To win the series, however, the Mets’ bullpen is simply going to have to be better — especially Diaz.
