MINNESOTA vs. No. 11 USC
When: 6:30 p.m. Saturday
Where: Huntington Bank Stadium
TV: Big Ten Network
Radio: KFXN-FM, 100.3
Weather: 71 degrees, mostly cloudy, 14 mph east wind
Betting spread: USC minus-9.5
Records: Both teams lost by the same score, 27-24, to now-No. 10 Michigan in Ann Arbor. Minnesota (2-3, 0-2 Big Ten) did so last week; USC (3-1, 1-1) did it a week prior. The Trojans had an impressive 27-20 win over current No. 13 LSU in season opener and scored 28 unanswered in a 38-21 victory over Wisconsin last week.
History: Minnesota is 1-6-1 all-time against the Trojans, including a 32-21 home loss in 2010 and a 19-17 defeat at the L.A. Coliseum in 2011. This is their first match-up as fellow Big Ten members.
Big question: Can the Gophers put together a complete game? Halftime leads over North Carolina and Iowa were lost, while a second-half comeback was needed against Michigan. All three ended incomplete. And head coach P.J. Fleck’s Big Ten losing streak stretches to six since last October.
Key matchup: USC WRs Zachariah Branch and Ja’Kobi Lane vs. CBs Ethan Robinson and Justin Walley or Za’Quan Bryan. If Walley can return after missing two weeks with a knee injury, Minnesota will be better off with its senior leader. Bryan, a redshirt sophomore, has been mostly up to the task so far, but the test against then Trojans’ athletic freaks will hit different.
Who has the edge?
Gophers offense vs. USC defense: Despite its struggles, Minnesota tried to establish the run against Michigan and failed. They might try to do so again Saturday and wouldn’t be considered stubborn if they do. USC is giving up 5.0 yards per attempt, which ranks 110th in the nation. The U has been at 3.4 per attempt, which is an uncharacteristic 111th in the country. … The biggest example of the shift in the Gophers offensive philosophy this season comes in Darius Taylor’s 10 receptions against Michigan, which tied a single-game program record for a running back (Roseville’s Chuck Rios in 1994). … Coming off a 8-5 season last year, USC brought in D’Anton Lynn as its new DC. The Trojans appear better overall, but still lack consistent disruption. They are last in the Big Ten with only 40 pressures this season, per Pro Football Focus, and they are outside the top 100 in the nation in both sacks and tackles for lost yards. … OC Greg Harbaugh said USC is at its best with its third down sub packages. … HC Lincoln Riley praised QB Max Brosmer as “smart, decisive.” Brosmer is completing 66 percent of his passes, which is 37th in the nation. … LB Easton Mascarenas-Arnold should be an matchup the Gophers can exploit. He has a 50.6 coverage grade, per PFF. But pass-catching TE Jameson Geers was limited to only five snaps due to injury last week. EDGE: Gophers
Gophers defense vs. USC offense: Minnesota missed 12 tackles against Michigan, meaning it has whiffed double digit times in each of its three losses. One silver lining is those three games’ missed tackles was it resulted in the fewest yards after contact (approximately 75) against the Wolverines, according to DC Corey Hetherman. … If the U misses many tackles against USC, the Trojans’ athleticism can turn them into explosive plays and touchdowns. … After 45 games at Mississippi State, 5-foot-10, 208-pound RB Woody Marks leads team with 5.5 yards per carry average. RB Quinten Joyner was a nice compliment against the Badgers, with 8.2 per rush. … QB Miller Moss is not No. 1 NFL draft pick Caleb Williams, but he is averaging 300 yards per game, with eight touchdowns and two interceptions. … The innovative Riley has has strung together top eight scoring offenses in all seven seasons as head coach dating back to Oklahoma in 2017. … Branch, a 5-10 speedster, and Lane, a 6-4 problem, will stress the Gophers secondary, especially its reconfigured safety spot. WR Duce Robinson has also made plays, with a touchdown apiece against Wisconsin and Michigan. Repeat: The Walley injury and his possible availability will be a key thing to watch when the unavailability list comes out two hours prior to the primetime kickoff. EDGE: USC
Special teams: PR Koi Perich’s 60-yard return against Michigan helped the U get back in the game. He has become must-see when back deep. K Dragan Kesich has struggled from long range, going 2 for 5 beyond 50 yards this season. … K Michael Lantz, who started at Minnesota 2019-21 and then Georgia Southern in ’22-23, is 6 for 7 on field goals this season. Branch busted one kickoff and one punt return for touchdowns last season, and has a 46-yard kickoff return so far this year. EDGE: USC
Prediction: The Gophers pass defense has not been tested by a passing offense like USC’s this season and it will show. Minnesota will be able to have its own success on offense, but the U will still be seeking a complete game. USC, 28-26
