Kentucky’s upset win at Mississippi not only will send the Rebels tumbling in the Week 5 rankings in both the US LBM Coaches and AP Top 25 polls but it also could have College Football Playoff implications. Ole Miss (5 Coaches/6 AP) was the only team to lose to an unranked opponent this weekend.
Since the beginning of the season, there has been an assumption the SEC is worthy of five bids in the CFP. Texas, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Missouri all came out of the gate fairly strong and were each ranked in the top 10.
The more data points that have been collected, the more flaws have been revealed. Mizzou took a tumble out of the top 10 last week in the rankings, even though it has yet to lose a game because the Tigers just haven’t looked strong. And with the Rebels’ loss at home to UK for the first time since 1978, this five-bid theory stands on shaky ground.
What other conference benefits from that, who knows? Perhaps it’ll be the Big Ten with Ohio State leading the way, but Penn State, Oregon and USC are all in the conversation. Maybe the ACC, which was looking like a one-bid league after the second week of the season, can muster a second spot. Perhaps even the Big 12, should Utah and Kansas State keep winning big.
Here’s what to look for when the US LBM Coaches Poll and The Associated Press Top 25 Poll are tallied and released Sunday.
Teams that should rise
Alabama presented a strong case to be ranked No. 1 as it raced to an early lead on Georgia. That the Crimson Tide had to come up with a defensive stand on the game’s final possession for its 41-34 win doesn’t diminish the argument, either.
Ohio State still hasn’t played anybody of note. Most of the shine from Texas’ win at Michigan has eroded, as we’ve discovered the Wolverines just aren’t that good. The injury to Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers is also something that has to be considered. Arch Manning, despite those already preparing to crown him, has been solid in relief against mediocre teams but does not seem to have the same command of the offense as Ewers at this point.
The worst thing that can be said about Alabama right now is that it let South Florida hang around for three quarters before the game ended in a 42-16 blowout. The Crimson Tide seems to be hitting its stride now.
Bama coach Kalen DeBoer proved in his first real test as Nick Saban’s replacement that he can handle the task.
Miami should get a bump with the Ole Miss loss and by way of its 38-34 victory over Virginia Tech. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hurricanes dropped a spot. The problem with the perception of the ACC is that the Hokies have already been written off based on their earlier performances. ACC teams don’t get credit for improving during the course of the season. So while the Rebels’ loss to Kentucky will show the depth of the SEC, Virginia Tech’s overturned Hail Mary touchdown catch will lead some to believe that the Canes aren’t as good as their ranking. The focus really should be on how good Miami quarterback Cam Ward is becoming. In a game in which he was intercepted twice, Ward still delivered the game-winning touchdown pass, his fourth of the game, on Miami’s final possession.
Teams that should drop
Georgia hasn’t consistently looked peachy this season, it only has snapshots to show: the second half against Clemson, the fourth quarter against Bama. Now UGA still has plenty of chances to get back to the top spot. The Dawgs still have upcoming games against top-10 foes Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Losing to the Crimson Tide won’t bury Georgia, but it’s hard to figure out which is the real version of the Dawgs: the one that lollygagged its way to a 13-12 win at Kentucky and trailed Bama, 28-0, or the team that furiously rallied from said deficit and briefly retook the lead?
Louisville just showed the difference between a top-15 team and a top 20. The Cardinals made too many mistakes to overcome in their 31-24 loss at Notre Dame, and while their play merits being ranked, they showed the growing pains of the team, still trying to come together. It was the first of three games against currently ranked teams on the schedule, with Miami at home and a road trip to Clemson coming up. The Cards will still have chances to make themselves heard nationally, but they just missed an opportunity to make a statement.
Teams that gotta go
Oklahoma State just lost its second straight game to a ranked team. Obviously, there’s no shame in that when a good share of major conference schools still have Beatemdown U on their schedules. But the Cowboys can’t find a way to unleash running back Ollie Gordon II. Opponents are stacking the box against the run to stop last year’s Doak Walker Award winner. Since the season opener, Gordon has yet to crack 100 yards again. And in their 42-20 loss to Kansas State, quarterback Alan Bowman had 50 passing attempts. That’s not a winning formula. It’s only the equation to get bumped out of the polls.
Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: College football rankings analysis for updated Coaches Poll, AP Top 25
