There is a ton to unpack following the end of the Mets‘ incredible run to the NLCS.
We discussed how the Mets’ unexpected season allowed fans to dream anything was possible, and how this feels like the start of something truly special.
Below, we’ll analyze the five biggest questions facing New York as the 2024 MLB offseason begins…
Pete Alonso‘s future
Alonso’s future has been talked about for years, as his free agency started to come into focus and both the club and his agents (he switched to Scott Boras last offseason) signaled that they were open to an extension.
Of course, that extension never came, and Alonso will now get his first crack at free agency as he prepares to enter his age-30 season.
And it will be fascinating to watch this play out.
During his six-year Met career, Alonso has clubbed 226 home runs. He will almost certainly break Darryl Strawberry‘s team record of 252 next season if he returns and stays healthy in 2025. But there are also warning signs.
Over the last three seasons, his OPS has steadily ticked down, from .869 in 2022 to .821 in 2023 to .788 in 2024, during a year when he struggled badly with runners in scoring position for the first time in his career.
It feels likely that some of those RISP struggles were self-inflicted, with Alonso understandably feeling pressure to perform in his walk year.
For the Mets, the questions will be multiple as they ponder whether to bring Alonso back. How do they feel he’ll age over a potential deal? Do they think his OBP will be in the .320s going forward or return to the .350s? Would they rather start fresh with one of their in-house options at first base (perhaps Mark Vientos soon or Ryan Clifford a bit later) and allocate the Alonso money elsewhere?
But while the Mets will base this decision on logic and what’s best for the franchise, there’s also a bit of emotion that goes into this. Alonso is a very important part of what the Mets are building. And his relationship with the fans and city is real.
Alonso’s relatively down 2024 season should keep his contract length and dollars reasonable, but all it takes is one reckless team to shake that up.
Juan Soto’s free agency and other possible big moves
The worst kept secret in baseball is that the Mets will be making a strong push to sign Soto this offseason, which would necessitate prying him from the Yankees’ grasp.
So as the Yanks and Dodgers battle in the World Series, all eyes will be on Soto, who is having a massive postseason after another incredible regular season.
Soto is a generational offensive talent who is just about to turn 26. His free agency should result in a deal over $500 million, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he got $600 million or more.
Steve Cohen and the Mets can outbid anyone, and it can be argued that regardless of whether the Yankees beat the Dodgers or not, it’s the team from Queens that is best positioned for success in 2025 and beyond.
The Yankees will do everything in their power to keep Soto in the Bronx, especially considering that if they lose him it will likely be to their crosstown rivals.
If not Soto (or in addition to him), the Mets could be players for some of the other big names on the free agent market.
That includes infielder Willy Adames, a player David Stearns is familiar with from his time in Milwaukee.
Another pending free agent Stearns knows well? Corbin Burnes, who is reportedly seeking an eight-year deal, which would be a bit of an insane contract to give a pitcher entering his age-30 season.
How will the pitching staff be remade?
The Mets should have a healthy Kodai Senga near the top of the rotation in 2025, and the emergence of David Peterson late this season gave them another likely member of the starting staff. Beyond that, there are a lot of question marks.
Sean Manaea (if he opts out, as is widely expected), Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana will all be free agents. And it’s hard to see the Mets bringing more than one of them back. Perhaps Manaea should be the main target.
There are some other in-house options, too. Those options include Paul Blackburn (who is arbitration-eligible) and Tylor Megill. But I would be surprised if the Mets entered spring training with either of those pitchers among the top five on the depth chart.
That would mean multiple external additions, with some potential free agents — like the aforementioned Burnes — being buzzier than others.
Along with Burnes, there are some other intriguing names who are about to hit the market, including Max Fried, Walker Buehler, and Blake Snell — the latter of whom could opt out.
How close is the next wave of prospects?
One thing that could impact how the Mets operate this offseason is just how close they think their next wave of top prospects are to contributing — and whether they think any or all of them will make a significant impact in 2025.
The expectation heading into 2024 was that Drew Gilbert and Jett Williams would make their big league debut at some point, but injuries derailed their seasons.
Gilbert had a .706 OPS in just 56 games in Triple-A this past season and is playing in the AFL to get more reps, so more will be needed from him before he gets the call. But once it clicks for him, he could be up quickly.
As far as Williams, he also finished the year with Triple-A and is playing in the AFL. In a brief taste in Syracuse, Williams slashed .364/.533/.546. Once he comes up, he’ll offer serious positional versatility, being able to play center field and the infield.
Perhaps the most intriguing prospect is hard-throwing right-hander Brandon Sproat.
In his age-23 season, Sproat tore through A-level Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton before struggling late in the season in his first crack at Triple-A.
Sproat will almost certainly start the 2025 season back with Triple-A, but he will be a big league rotation option at some point. And since he threw 116.1 combined innings in 2024, he should be able to throw roughly 150 next season.
The uncertain futures of Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte
The Mets have a bunch of free agents, including the aforementioned Alonso, three members of the starting rotation, outfielder Jesse Winker, and reliever Ryne Stanek. But two players still under contract could have uncertain futures, too.
McNeil has two years left on the extension he signed before the 2023 season, which will pay him a shade under $16 million annually in 2025 and 2026.
Given McNeil’s struggles during the first half of the 2024 season, it’s hard to see any team taking his full salary on. But if the Mets are willing to absorb some of it, perhaps they could get a solid piece in exchange for the versatile infielder/outfielder.
To be clear, McNeil has serious value to the Mets. But with a potentially crowded infield — and McNeil not profiling power-wise as a starting corner outfielder — it’s fair to wonder what’s next.
Then there’s Marte, who has one year and $20.75 million remaining on his deal.
Right now, the only starting outfielder you can pencil in for 2025 is Brandon Nimmo. Tyrone Taylor is under team control and should be a factor, but fits better as a bench player.
If the Mets add another starting corner outfielder (Soto or someone else), it would seemingly leave Marte on the outside looking in.
Marte had an offensive season in 2024 that was a tick above average (104 OPS+), so there should be interest if the Mets make him available. But as would be the case with McNeil, New York would likely need to eat a chunk of his remaining salary to facilitate a deal.
