The penultimate race of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season is upon us and there are only two spots in the Cup Championship 4 up for grabs at Martinsville Speedway on Sunday. Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick are in after collecting a win each the last two weeks and that leaves Christopher Bell, William Byron, Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott to duke it out for the final two spots at the 2024 Xfinity 500 as the Round of 8 concludes. The green flag drops at 2 p.m. ET.
Hamlin and Larson are 4-1 co-favorites in the latest 2024 Xfinity 500 odds and they’re followed Blaney at 11-2 and then Byron and Elliott at 15-2. Bell has a healthy 29-point cushion to work with in the 2024 NASCAR playoff standings going into the weekend and he’s priced at 12-1 in the NASCAR at Martinsville odds. Before entering any 2024 Xfinity 500 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
It called its first winner of the 2024 season with Kyle Larson in Las Vegas for a 21-5 betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4. It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 18 winners since 2021, including nine last year and three in the first seven races this season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks saw huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2024 Xfinity 500 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Martinsville leaderboard.
Top 2024 Xfinity 500 predictions
For the 2024 Xfinity 500, the model is high on Tyler Reddick at 25-1 in the latest 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Last week’s winner is guaranteed a chance to race for a championship last week, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’ll clear the deck for the six other playoff drivers to compete for the final two spots on Sunday.
With 23XI team owner Denny Hamlin still racing for his playoff life and fellow Toyota driver Christopher Bell still competing for their playoff lives, Reddick would certainly prefer to be running near the front to lend a helping hand and could find himself in a spot where he’s in a position to win. He finished a career-best seventh at Martinsville earlier this year despite starting 19th and will undoubtedly be leaning heavily on that setup on Sunday.
And a massive shocker: Ryan Blaney (11-2) stumbles and fails to crack the top five. There are far better values in the 2024 NASCAR Martinsville starting lineup. Last year’s NASCAR Cup Series champion is 38 points behind bubble boy William Byron entering the final weekend of the season, which means he’s probably in a win-or-go-home situation.
Blaney has finished 29th or worse in five of his last 10 starts and the fall race last season at Martinsville (which he did win) is the only time that he’s led a lap in his last four starts on the famed short track. He’ll be in a track position fight all day on Sunday and that’s doesn’t lend itself well to him being priced as third favorite. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville picks
The model is also targeting two drivers with odds of 16-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.
So who wins the 2024 Xfinity 500, and which longshots are must-backs for NASCAR prop bets? Check out the latest 2024 NASCAR at Martinsville odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 18 winners, including three already this year.
2024 Xfinity 500 odds, drivers, lineup
See the full NASCAR at Martinsville picks at SportsLine.
Denny Hamlin 4-1
Kyle Larson 4-1
Ryan Blaney 11-2
William Byron 15-2
Chase Elliott 15-2
Christopher Bell 12-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Martin Truex Jr. 16-1
Chase Briscoe 22-1
Brad Keselowski 22-1
Bubba Wallace 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Alex Bowman 30-1
Ty Gibbs 30-1
Ross Chastain 30-1
Kyle Busch 30-1
Josh Berry 35-1
Chris Buescher 40-1
Austin Cindric 65-1
Daniel Suarez 75-1
Ryan Preece 75-1
Austin Dillon 100-1
Carson Hocevar 100-1
Noah Gragson 125-1
Todd Gilliland 125-1
Michael McDowell 200-1
Shane Van Gisbergen 200-1
Erik Jones 350-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 500-1
Zane Smith 750-1
Corey Lajoie 750-1
Justin Haley 750-1
John Hunter Nemechek 1000-1
Daniel Hemric 1000-1
Harrison Burton 1000-1
Josh Bilicki 2500-1
Kaz Grala 2500-1
